ONDSActive

Will Ondas achieve positive adjusted EBITDA in any quarter of FY2026?

Resolves March 31, 2027(379d)

IG: 0.65

Current Prediction

40%

Likely No

Model Agreement68%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 35% – 45%Aggregate: 40%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

35%

Adj EBITDA was -$33M on $50M revenue. To turn positive requires either massive revenue scale (unlikely in single quarter) or dramatic cost reduction. At Q4 run rate of $30M/quarter and -$8M EBITDA loss, the company needs ~35% margin improvement or $45M+ quarterly revenue with current cost structure.

Large EBITDA gap to closeOperating leverage not yet demonstratedRevenue must scale faster than costs

opusRun 2

40%

If Q4 2025 already had adj EBITDA loss of -$11M on $30M revenue, and if Mistral/BIRD add $20-30M in quarterly revenue with their existing margins, a $50M+ quarter with improved margins could approach breakeven. Defense contracts often have 30-40% gross margins. The question is whether SG&A scales appropriately.

Acquisition revenue could push quarterly total above $50MDefense margins typically 30-40%SG&A scaling is the key variable

opusRun 3

42%

Four quarters provides multiple attempts. Even one big contract quarter with high margins could tip the balance. Management has repeatedly raised revenue guidance, suggesting confidence in scaling. However, stock-based comp of $5M/quarter may be excluded from adj EBITDA, making the math more achievable.

Four quarterly attemptsSBC exclusion from adj EBITDA helpsBig contract quarter could tip balance

sonnetRun 1

45%

If revenue reaches $170M+ and gross margins improve from 26% to 35%+ (reasonable for defense products at scale), gross profit would be ~$60M. Against $50-60M in operating expenses excluding SBC, adj EBITDA breakeven is reachable in a strong quarter.

Gross margin expansion expectedRevenue scale drives operating leverageStrong quarter needed

sonnetRun 2

38%

The net loss widened 40% despite 590% revenue growth, which suggests operating leverage is not emerging. Each acquisition adds overhead. Integration costs will weigh on margins in early quarters. Positive adj EBITDA is possible but requires everything to go right in at least one quarter.

Operating leverage not yet visibleIntegration costs weigh on marginsRequires near-perfect quarter

sonnetRun 3

42%

Balanced assessment: revenue scale and margin expansion make breakeven possible, but the lack of demonstrated operating leverage and integration complexity make it uncertain.

Revenue scale possibleMargin expansion neededIntegration complexity

haikuRun 1

40%

Four quarters of attempts with growing revenue gives reasonable chance. Defense margins help. But integration costs and SG&A growth work against.

Multiple attemptsDefense margins favorableIntegration costs unfavorable

haikuRun 2

38%

Net loss widening despite revenue growth is the key concern. Would need a significant quarter to break through.

Net loss still wideningSignificant quarter needed

haikuRun 3

42%

Moderate probability given the combination of growing revenue, defense margins, and four quarterly attempts, offset by integration costs.

Growing revenueFour attemptsIntegration costs

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Ondas reports positive adjusted EBITDA in any quarterly earnings report during FY2026 (Q1-Q4 2026). Resolves NO if adjusted EBITDA remains negative in all four quarters.

Resolution Source

Ondas Inc. quarterly earnings press releases

Source Trigger

Net loss widened 40% to $53M despite 590% revenue growth — operating leverage test

stress-scannerCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTHIGH

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