Will On Holding disclose LightSpray-based product revenue exceeding 5% of footwear sales by FY2026?

The Busan facility just opened in March 2026, providing only ~9 months of FY2026 production. Even with 30x capacity, ramping a new manufacturing technology to produce CHF 160M+ in revenue within the first year is extremely ambitious. The current LightSpray product line is limited (Cloudboom Strike franchise). Scaling requires expanding SKUs, building distribution, and generating consumer demand for a specific manufacturing technology — most consumers don't care how their shoes are made. Additionally, On may not disclose LightSpray-specific revenue, making resolution impossible.

Manufacturing technology scaling follows an S-curve — early ramp is slow, acceleration comes later. The Busan facility provides capacity but capacity doesn't equal revenue. Product development, channel placement, consumer awareness of LightSpray products, and the production learning curve all create delays. The NYC Marathon win validates performance but elite athletes represent a tiny market. Mass-market LightSpray products are likely 12-18 months from significant revenue contribution, placing material traction in FY2027 not FY2026.

The most bullish case: On has been developing LightSpray for several years, Cloudboom Strike is already in market, and the Busan facility dramatically increases capacity. If On launches 2-3 more LightSpray-based franchises in Spring/Fall 2026 at premium price points ($200-300), at scale through their DTC channel, 5% of footwear (~CHF 160M) could be achievable. But this requires aggressive product development timing that management hasn't explicitly committed to. More likely: LightSpray reaches 2-3% in FY2026 and ramps to 5%+ in FY2027.

5% of footwear sales is a high bar for a technology that just reached commercial-scale production. The Busan facility opened March 2026 — even if at full capacity, the product pipeline needs to exist to fill that capacity with consumer-ready products. Current LightSpray products are limited to performance running. Mass market lifestyle products using LightSpray would need to be designed, tested, and launched — a process that typically takes 12+ months. FY2027 is the realistic timeline.

The resolution has a secondary challenge: disclosure. On may not break out LightSpray revenue specifically. Even if LightSpray products reach 5% of sales, management might describe it in qualitative terms rather than precise percentages. The market requires explicit disclosure, which is not guaranteed. Combining the production scaling challenge with the disclosure uncertainty, this is a low-probability outcome in FY2026.

The counter-argument: On has been preparing for this. The technology isn't brand new — they've been developing it for years, with the Cloudboom Strike already in market. The Busan facility represents the scaling moment. If On has been building a product pipeline specifically for the Busan launch, multiple LightSpray products could enter the market in H2 2026. At premium prices ($250+), fewer units are needed to reach 5% dollar share. Still unlikely in FY2026 but not impossible.

New manufacturing technology reaching 5% of revenue in first year of scaled production is very rare. Busan just opened. Product pipeline limited. FY2027 is more realistic target.

Manufacturing scaling takes time. 5% threshold is demanding. Disclosure uncertainty adds risk. Low probability in FY2026.

Production ramp, product pipeline development, and distribution all require time. 5% in first year is very ambitious. More likely 1-3% contribution in FY2026.