Will On Holding's apparel category exceed 10% of net sales in FY2026?

Math: Apparel at ~7% of CHF 3.01B = ~CHF 211M. To reach 10% of ~CHF 3.5-3.7B = ~CHF 350-370M. Required apparel growth: 66-75%. FY2025 apparel grew 76% CC, so this is achievable IF the growth rate sustains. However, the law of large numbers applies — 76% CC from a ~CHF 211M base to ~CHF 370M is demanding. Management frames apparel as a priority ('company within the company') which supports investment. But apparel competition is intense and footwear brands extending into apparel have mixed track records.

The 10% threshold is demanding because it requires apparel to grow faster than the total company. If total grows 23-27% and apparel needs to reach 10% from 7%, apparel must grow ~65-75%. While FY2025 achieved 76% CC, the base is now larger and the Zendaya collection launch cadence matters. Also, the 7% figure may include accessories or may not — definitional clarity creates uncertainty. On balance, achievable but more likely to land at 8-9% than 10%+.

Key catalysts for apparel in FY2026: Zendaya Spring/Summer collection, expanding retail store footprint (40% larger stores showcase full assortment), and the apparel-as-acquisition-channel strategy (6% to 10% of new customers). DTC apparel at 60%+ share means direct revenue capture. If management accelerates apparel investment as signaled, 10% is possible. The 'company within the company' framing suggests organizational commitment. But 10% specifically may be a stretch — 9% seems more likely.

While 76% CC growth is impressive, maintaining that pace from a larger base is difficult. Apparel competition from lululemon, Nike, and adidas at the premium tier is intense. On is building apparel capabilities, but footwear-first brands typically take 3-5 years to build a meaningful apparel business. Going from 7% to 10% in one year is aggressive. I expect 8-9% is more likely.

The math is tight but not impossible. Apparel grew from ~CHF 120M to ~CHF 211M in FY2025 (76% CC). Growing to CHF 350M+ would be a ~66% increase. The Zendaya partnership, expanded retail footprint, and management's strategic commitment are real tailwinds. But footwear will also grow, making the denominator larger. If footwear growth moderates (deceleration theme) while apparel sustains, the share could reach 9-10%. Possible but not probable.

The question depends on whether apparel maintains near-current growth rates. The 1M+ units sold in Q3 2025 alone demonstrates production and distribution capacity exist. The DTC channel mix (60%+) for apparel is favorable for margin and speed of scaling. However, seasonal variability in apparel (more pronounced than footwear) could make the FY2026 number land at 9% rather than 10%. A near-miss is the most likely outcome.

Apparel grew 76% CC in FY2025 but needs similar pace to reach 10%. Competition is intense. Most likely outcome is 8-9%. Possible but not probable to hit 10%.

Management commitment and Zendaya collection are positive. DTC channel mix favorable. But 10% threshold is demanding from 7% base in one year. Moderate probability.

Math requires sustaining near-current growth rates. Achievable but the threshold is tight. More likely to approach 9% than exceed 10%. Below 50% probability.