Will On Holding raise FY2026 CC growth guidance above 27% by Q2 2026 earnings?

FY2025 saw three guidance raises from 28% to 34% (total +6pp). A raise from 23% to above 27% (+4pp) is within the historical pattern. However, the base is now larger ($3B+ vs $1.8B) and macro uncertainty (tariffs, FX, US consumer) may cause management to maintain wider buffers. The CFO transition in May 2026 could delay guidance changes. Net: the pattern favors a raise but the magnitude is uncertain.

The question requires a raise above 27% by Q2 earnings (November 2026), giving two opportunities (Q1 and Q2 reports). In FY2025, the first raise to 31% came after Q1. A comparable raise from 23% to 26-27% after Q1 is likely if Q1 beats. But specifically above 27% requires either a large initial raise or two sequential raises within 2 quarters. The Investor Day delay to 2027 removes a potential catalyst for aggressive guidance revision.

If Q1 delivers 27%+ CC growth (plausible given order book and H1 weighting), management would likely raise FY guidance to at least 25-26%. A Q2 beat would push it higher. The pattern of raises is deeply embedded in management's communication style. However, the new CFO joining May 2026 may want to be conservative in the first guidance update under their watch. The 3-year CAGR target of 30.5% provides an anchor — maintaining that requires actual growth above 25% in FY2026.

This is genuinely uncertain. The raise pattern is strong (3 raises in FY2025), but the question asks for above 27% specifically — that requires either a single +4pp raise or cumulative raises of +4pp. The macro environment (tariffs, potential recession) gives management cover to stay conservative even if underlying performance is strong. The CFO transition adds another reason for caution in guidance updates.

I weight the CFO transition more heavily. Frank Sluis joins in May 2026 — Q1 earnings (likely August) would be his first public guidance update. New CFOs typically maintain or slightly raise guidance rather than making aggressive revisions. Even if Q1 performance supports a larger raise, institutional caution during leadership transitions is the norm. The Investor Day delay to 2027 supports this conservative approach.

The 3-year CAGR anchor is important. Management targeted 'at least 30.5% CAGR' for 2023-2026. FY2024 was ~29% CC and FY2025 was 36% CC, meaning FY2026 needs ~25%+ CC to hit the CAGR. If actual growth is tracking 27-28%, raising guidance above 27% maintains credibility on the 3-year target. Management has demonstrated willingness to raise guidance when results support it, and the order book provides confidence.

Pattern of 3 raises in FY2025 is strong evidence. But 27% threshold requires significant raise, and CFO transition adds conservatism. Near coin-flip leaning slightly below 50%.

Two earnings reports provide two opportunities. If Q1 growth is strong (27%+), at least one raise above 27% is likely. Historical pattern strongly favors raises. But macro uncertainty and CFO transition create offsetting factors.

Genuinely uncertain. Strong pattern of raises vs. CFO transition conservatism and macro uncertainty. Coin-flip assessment.