Will On Holding's Americas CC revenue growth fall below 20% in H1 2026?

Americas Q4 2025 CC growth was 21%, already close to the 20% threshold. The resolution requires either Q1 OR Q2 to fall below 20%. With Q4 at 21%, a further deceleration of just 1-2pp would trigger resolution. However, the order book 'exceeded expectations' and 50% of wholesale doors don't yet carry On, providing organic growth runway. US price increases were absorbed without demand destruction. The base comparison in H1 2026 vs H1 2025 matters — H1 2025 may have had lower bases making H1 2026 comps easier.

The deceleration trajectory in Americas is clear. The question is whether Q4's 21% CC is the trough or a waypoint to further deceleration. US consumer sentiment uncertainty, tariff-driven price increases, and the law of large numbers (Americas is a ~$1.6B base) all create downward pressure. However, brand awareness at only 30% and 50% wholesale doors untapped suggest organic growth drivers remain. I weight this slightly above the threshold being crossed given the tight proximity.

The resolution requires below 20% in EITHER Q1 OR Q2, giving two chances. However, H1 is guided to grow faster than the full year for the group, which likely applies regionally as well. New product launches (Cloudsurfer 3, Cloudmonster 3) typically drive stronger early-year demand. The Spring/Summer 2026 Zendaya collection could provide an Americas demand boost. Even with deceleration, the organic growth levers suggest 20%+ is maintainable for at least H1 2026.

Q4 Americas at 21% CC is dangerously close to the threshold. The resolution only needs one quarter below 20% out of two. If the US consumer weakens or tariff-driven price increases cause any demand elasticity in the middle market, slipping below 20% is plausible. However, the H1 seasonal strength and new product pipeline provide a buffer. I assess this as a meaningful risk but not the base case.

I'm weighting the US consumer risk more heavily. If tariff uncertainty creates a consumer spending pullback, premium discretionary purchases like $150-200 running shoes could be deferred. On's Americas base is large (~CHF 1.6B) and the deceleration from group rate to 21% CC suggests saturation in early-adopter segments. The next wave of growth requires broader penetration, which is inherently slower. A sub-20% quarter in H1 is a credible scenario.

The wholesale door runway (50% not yet carrying On) is the strongest bull argument — it provides organic growth independent of same-store trends. New store openings (target ~20-25 per year) contribute directly. Even if existing customer spend moderates, distribution expansion provides a growth floor. Sub-20% requires distribution expansion to stall simultaneously with organic deceleration, which is unlikely in the near term.

Q4 at 21% CC is close to threshold but organic growth levers (wholesale doors, new stores, product launches) provide buffer. H1 typically stronger. Sub-20% possible but not probable.

Deceleration trajectory is clear. US consumer uncertainty adds risk. Two quarters increases probability of at least one dip below 20%. But distribution expansion and new products favor above-20%.

Americas deceleration real but growth levers remain. Order book strength and new product launches support H1 performance. Sub-20% requires negative surprise beyond current trajectory.