Will On Holding's Q1 2026 constant-currency revenue growth fall below 25%?

Management guided H1 to grow 'slightly higher than full year' (>23% CC), and has beaten guidance by 2-8pp across FY2025. Order book 'exceeded expectations.' Q4 2025 delivered 30.6% CC growth. Even with Americas deceleration to 21% CC, APAC triple-digit growth and EMEA stability provide offset. A sub-25% print requires meaningful deceleration from Q4 2025's 30.6% pace, which seems unlikely given the strong order book and H1-weighted guidance.

The deceleration trajectory is genuine: FY2025 was 36% CC but the exit rate in Q4 was 30.6% CC. Americas at 53% of revenue grew only 21% CC in Q4 — the largest geography is already below 25%. If APAC's triple-digit growth moderates (mathematically inevitable) and Americas doesn't reaccelerate, Q1 could come in at 25-28% CC, making sub-25% possible but not the base case. The base is now CHF 3B+ making percentage growth harder.

The strongest counter-argument to sub-25% is the order book. Management explicitly stated it 'exceeded expectations' and H1 is growing faster than FY average. In footwear, order books provide 3-6 months of visibility, meaning Q1 performance is largely locked in by the time of the earnings call. The guidance conservatism pattern (3 raises in FY2025) and strong new product pipeline (Cloudsurfer 3, Cloudmonster 3) support above-25% growth.

Management's guidance beat history is the dominant signal here. They guided 23%+ for FY2026 with H1 higher, implying Q1 is likely 25-28% CC. The sell-off was about the deceleration from 36% to 23%, not about whether 23% would be achieved. Americas at 21% CC in Q4 is concerning but offset by APAC strength and wholesale runway (50% of doors). Sub-25% requires a meaningful negative surprise.

I weight the US consumer risk more heavily. Americas is 53% of revenue and already at 21% CC. If US consumer sentiment weakens (tariff uncertainty, potential recession fears), the core market could decelerate further. APAC growth, while strong, is from a smaller base and cannot fully compensate. The 14% market sell-off suggests institutional investors see a genuine growth inflection. However, the order book being described as exceeding expectations is a strong near-term positive.

The Q4 2025 CC growth of 30.6% provides the most recent data point. For Q1 to fall below 25%, it would need to decelerate by 5.6pp from Q4 — a meaningful drop. While some deceleration is expected, the H1 guidance being 'slightly higher than full year' suggests management expects Q1 and Q2 to be stronger quarters. Brand awareness gains (+10pp YoY to 30%) continue to drive organic demand. Sub-25% is possible but not probable.

Order book exceeded expectations. H1 guided higher than full year. Management has beaten guidance consistently. Strong product pipeline. Sub-25% requires meaningful negative surprise that isn't visible in current data.

Americas deceleration is the risk factor. At 53% of revenue and 21% CC in Q4, the core market is slowing. But APAC momentum and wholesale runway provide offset. Balance of probabilities favors above 25% given order book strength.

Management beat pattern is strong. Q4 was 30.6% CC. Guidance implies Q1 above 23%. Multiple growth vectors active. Sub-25% requires convergence of negatives that current data doesn't support.