OPENActive

Will Opendoor's cash balance fall below $600M in 2026?

Resolves March 15, 2027(363d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

30%

Likely No

Model Agreement80%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Cash depletion below $600M would force a dilutive equity raise or operational cutbacks. Maintaining cash above $600M with improving adj EBITDA would suggest the company is becoming self-sustaining.

FUNDING_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 28% – 32%Aggregate: 30%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

28%

Starting at $962M with $30-45M quarterly burn. Even at $45M/quarter for 4 quarters, cash declines to ~$782M. Would need unexpected one-time charges or massive inventory buildup to drop below $600M.

$962M starting point$45M max quarterly burnMath doesn't reach $600M

opusRun 2

30%

The $193M convertible notes due near-term could consume cash. If repaid in cash (not converted) plus normal burn, could reach ~$600M range. But unlikely to go below $600M unless housing deterioration accelerates losses.

Convertible note repayment riskNormal burn insufficient to reach $600MHousing deterioration needed

opusRun 3

32%

Cash runway analysis suggests 2.5 years at current burn. Dropping below $600M in one year requires either significant acceleration in losses or large cash outflows. Convertible notes are the main risk factor.

2.5 year runwayConvertible notes main riskAcceleration needed

sonnetRun 1

30%

Low probability. $362M gap from $962M to $600M is large. Burns are improving. Company could also raise equity if needed.

$362M gapImproving burnsCan raise equity

sonnetRun 2

28%

At guided $30-35M Q1 loss, improving trajectory means subsequent quarters should be smaller losses. Total 2026 cash burn likely $100-150M. Convertible repayment adds $193M. Total outflow ~$300-350M, leaving $612-662M. Tight but likely stays above $600M.

Total outflow ~$300-350MConvertible adds $193MLeaves $612-662M

sonnetRun 3

32%

The convertible note scenario creates a realistic path to below $600M. If EBITDA losses don't improve as fast as guided AND convertible notes are repaid in cash, cash could reach $550-600M range.

Convertible + slower improvement = riskRealistic downside scenarioProbability still below 35%

haikuRun 1

30%

Starting with $962M. Declining $30-45M/quarter. Need large additional outflow to reach $600M. Unlikely.

High starting pointModerate burn rate

haikuRun 2

28%

Low probability event. Would require combination of convertible repayment, larger-than-expected losses, and no equity raise.

Low probabilityMultiple negatives needed

haikuRun 3

32%

Slight upside risk from convertible notes and potential inventory buildup consuming cash. But base case stays above $600M.

Convertible riskInventory buildupBase case above $600M

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if any Opendoor quarterly filing in 2026 reports cash and equivalents below $600M

Resolution Source

Opendoor 10-Q and 10-K filings for 2026

Source Trigger

Cash balance drops below $600M

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

View OPEN Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis