Will Opendoor's shares outstanding exceed 1.1 billion by end of 2026?

957M shares currently. ~100M in executive RSU grants vesting over 4-5 years. ATM program may continue if cash needs persist. 1.1B requires 143M additional shares (15% growth). FY2025 added 172M. If similar pace, easily exceeds 1.1B.

If adj EBITDA turns positive, need for ATM issuance decreases. RSU vesting still adds shares but many have price hurdles above current price ($6.24-$33). Some tranches may not vest if price stays below hurdles.

The RSU grants alone could add 40-50M shares in 2026 even with conservative vesting assumptions. ATM issuance to fund operations could add another 30-50M. Total dilution of 70-100M from 957M base gets to 1.03-1.06B. Need additional ATM or equity raise to reach 1.1B.

FY2025 dilution was 22%. Similar pace would take shares to ~1.17B. Even half the FY2025 pace (11%) reaches 1.06B. The question is whether profitability progress reduces equity issuance need.

Slight majority probability. The RSU pipeline and potential ATM usage create meaningful dilution pressure. But if the company approaches breakeven, the need for new equity diminishes.

The convertible notes ($193M) may convert to equity, adding shares. RSU vesting is largely mechanical. ATM is discretionary but management has shown willingness to use it. Balance of evidence suggests above 1.1B is more likely than not.

Prior year added 172M shares. Even 80M addition gets to 1.04B. 1.1B needs 143M. Probable but not certain.

Dilution has been a consistent feature. RSU grants and potential equity raises make 1.1B more likely than not.

Slight majority. The pace may slow if profitability improves but the structural dilution from RSU grants provides a floor.