OPENActive

Will Opendoor achieve positive adjusted EBITDA in H2 2026?

Resolves March 15, 2027(363d)

IG: 0.72

Current Prediction

42%

Likely No

Model Agreement74%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Adjusted EBITDA turning positive would validate management's profitability timeline and reduce funding fragility concerns. Failure to achieve positive adj EBITDA by H2 2026 would invalidate the core transformation thesis.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYUNIT_ECONOMICS

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 40% – 45%Aggregate: 42%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

45%

Adj EBITDA loss improving from $83M FY2025 to guided $30-35M Q1 2026. If trajectory continues with seasonal volume in Q2-Q3, positive adj EBITDA by Q3 or Q4 is plausible. Management timeline says end of 2026 for adj net income, which implies adj EBITDA positive earlier.

Improving trajectoryManagement timelineSeasonal volume

opusRun 2

40%

The trajectory from -$83M to -$30-35M is improvement but reaching positive requires a step change. Volume must grow significantly to spread fixed costs. SBC is excluded from adj EBITDA so the barrier is lower. But contribution margins must sustain at 4-6% at higher volumes.

Step change neededVolume growth criticalMargin sustainability at scale

opusRun 3

42%

At 5% contribution margin and 4,000 homes/quarter ($370K ASP), contribution profit would be ~$74M/quarter. Fixed costs (excl SBC) run ~$60-70M/quarter. This math suggests adj EBITDA breakeven is achievable if volume reaches 4,000+ homes/quarter. Q4 has strongest seasonal volume.

Math works at 4K homes/quarter with 5% marginFixed costs ~$60-70M/quarter excl SBCQ4 seasonal strength

sonnetRun 1

45%

Management has committed to this timeline publicly. The improving loss trajectory and acquisition velocity ramp suggest they have visibility. Companies rarely commit to profitability timelines they believe they will miss. However, macro risk remains.

Management credibility on timelineImproving loss trajectoryMacro risk remains

sonnetRun 2

40%

The adj EBITDA metric excludes SBC, making the bar lower. But it still requires positive contribution profit exceeding cash operating expenses. The company has never achieved this. Historical pattern is promising claims followed by misses when macro doesn't cooperate.

Lower bar without SBCNever achieved beforeMacro dependency

sonnetRun 3

43%

The H2 2026 window gives management two quarters to hit the target. Q3 and Q4 are both seasonally strong. If Q1-Q2 acquisition ramp plays out, the homes sold in H2 should be at higher volumes with better margins (newer cohorts). Probability slightly below coin-flip due to execution risk.

Two-quarter windowSeasonal strengthBetter cohort margins in H2

haikuRun 1

40%

Trajectory is improving but company has never been adj EBITDA positive. Base rate for loss-making companies hitting profitability targets is around 40-50%. Management has incentive to set achievable targets.

Never achievedImproving trajectoryBase rate ~40-50%

haikuRun 2

42%

If housing market cooperates and volume scales, the math works. But there is meaningful probability of macro deterioration or execution stumble preventing positive adj EBITDA.

Math conditional on volumeMacro riskExecution risk

haikuRun 3

43%

Slightly below coin-flip. The improving trajectory and management commitment suggest meaningful probability, but the company's track record of losses and macro dependency warrant a discount.

Below coin-flipTrack record discountManagement commitment

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Opendoor reports positive adjusted EBITDA in either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026

Resolution Source

Opendoor Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings releases

Source Trigger

Adjusted EBITDA turns positive for 2 consecutive quarters

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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