Will Opendoor's Q2 2026 contribution margin exceed 5%?

New cohorts tracking 4-6% margins. Q2 is seasonally strong. Legacy inventory drag should be cleared by Q2. If new cohorts sustain 5%+, achievable.

5% is the upper end of the 4-6% tracking range. Scaling volume while maintaining margins has historically been Opendoor's challenge. Possible but not certain.

Q1 guided as highest contribution margin since Q2 2024. If Q1 reaches 4%+, Q2 seasonal strength could push above 5%. Housing appreciation in spring also helps.

The improvement from 1% to 4-6% on new cohorts is real but unverified at scale. Q2 has seasonal advantage. Probability near coin-flip.

Contribution margin depends on both buy-side pricing accuracy and sell-side execution speed. Cash Plus transactions may have different margin profiles. Blended 5%+ is possible but requires favorable mix.

The company's AI pricing improvements and faster inventory turns (23% reduction in days in inventory) are real operational improvements. If sustained, 5% contribution margin is achievable in a strong seasonal quarter.

4-6% range means 5% is the midpoint. If tracking holds, ~50% probability by definition. Slight discount for execution risk.

Housing market conditions and seasonal strength favor achievement. But company has a history of margin compression at higher volumes.

Q2 is the best quarter for this to happen given seasonal strength. If it doesn't hit 5% in Q2, unlikely to hit it in other quarters. Slightly below coin-flip.