Will PCT's diluted share count increase by more than 10% from FY2025 levels by end of FY2026?

PCT added ~8M shares in FY2025 (5% dilution from 160M to 168M), but this was during a year when $323M+ was raised in financing. FY2026 faces a similar or greater capital need: $182.6M burn rate continues, Augusta needs financing, and the Series B Convertible Preferred adds latent dilution. To stay below 10% dilution (16.8M shares), the company would need to minimize equity financing — but with cash burning and debt already at 43x revenue, equity is often the only option. The 10% threshold (184.8M shares) is likely breached if any major financing includes an equity component.

The 10% threshold is 16.8M additional shares (from 168M to 184.8M). In FY2025, the company added ~8M shares and raised $323M+. If FY2026 requires similar capital raises, and assuming similar equity dilution per dollar raised, that's ~8M more shares. But FY2026 may need MORE equity if Augusta financing includes an equity component, or if the convertible preferred converts. Conversely, FY2026 might see less equity issuance if the company relies more on debt or if Ironton revenue reduces the burn rate. The balance tilts toward exceeding 10% given the capital intensity.

The question uses 'diluted share count' which includes options, convertibles, and warrants in addition to basic shares. This is a higher bar than basic shares alone. The convertible preferred conversion terms are not fully detailed in the analysis, creating uncertainty about the magnitude. SBC-related dilution (performance share units, 2021 Equity Plan) adds annual incremental dilution even without financing. However, if the company manages to raise primarily through debt or structured project finance (as with Ironton revenue bonds), equity dilution could be limited. I'm at ~55% but with lower confidence due to the convertible preferred uncertainty.

PCT's business model is capital-dependent with no self-sustaining cash flow. The $182.6M annual burn rate against $156.7M cash means the company MUST raise capital in FY2026. If even half the capital raised is equity (as in FY2025), the 10% dilution threshold is at risk. SBC adds 2-3% dilution annually. The convertible preferred conversion is an additional wild card. The question is not IF dilution occurs, but how much — and 10% is a moderate threshold for a pre-revenue capital-intensive company.

FY2025 saw 5% dilution alongside massive capital raises. If FY2026 capital needs are similar but the company successfully uses more debt financing (revenue bonds model), dilution could remain in the 5-8% range. However, if Augusta financing includes an equity component, or if the convertible preferred triggers, 10%+ becomes very likely. I weight the debt-heavy scenario at ~40% probability and the equity-heavy scenario at ~60%, yielding ~55% probability of exceeding 10%.

The cumulative effect matters: SBC (2-3%), operational financing equity component (3-5%), and potential convertible preferred conversion (unknown magnitude) could easily exceed 10% combined. The company's track record shows willingness to use equity as a financing tool. The new CFO inheriting a complex capital structure with limited leverage capacity further tilts toward equity financing. Probability slightly above coin-flip.

Capital-dependent company with $182.6M burn, 43x leverage, and convertible preferred outstanding. Must raise capital. Equity is the primary tool. 10% dilution in a year is likely for a pre-revenue company with these characteristics.

FY2025 was 5% dilution. FY2026 needs more capital. Convertible preferred adds risk. SBC adds baseline. But company might use more debt. Slightly above coin-flip probability of exceeding 10%.

The company raised $323M+ in FY2025 and diluted 5%. If FY2026 requires similar or more capital and includes any convertible triggers, 10% is very achievable. SBC adds incremental dilution. Moderate-to-high probability.