QSActive

Will QS raise additional equity capital (ATM or offering) by Q4 2026?

Resolves March 15, 2027(359d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

68%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement92%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 20, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The Stress Scanner classified FUNDING_FRAGILITY as STRETCHED with $970.8M liquidity against $290-335M annual burn. Additional equity issuance in 2026 would confirm the dilution trajectory that erodes per-share economics. Absence of new raises would suggest the runway claim is credible and that customer billings may be supplementing cash needs.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 62% – 73%Aggregate: 68%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

72%

Pre-revenue companies with high burn rates consistently raise capital opportunistically when stock prices are elevated. QS raised via ATM in Q3 2025, demonstrating willingness. New market expansion may increase cash needs.

Pre-revenue companies raise opportunisticallyDemonstrated willingness via Q3 2025 ATMNew market expansion may increase needs

opusRun 2

65%

The runway math at midpoint is approximately 3 years. Management might choose to extend runway proactively. If stock price declines, ATM raises become less attractive. Current price creates a reasonable window for opportunistic raises.

3-year runway creates incentive to extendStock price level affects ATM attractivenessOpportunistic raise likely if price holds

opusRun 3

68%

Pre-revenue companies with 3-year cash runways almost always raise capital before they need to. Management has an active ATM shelf registration allowing frictionless sales. Even small ATM sales during 2026 would resolve YES.

Active ATM shelf allows frictionless salesPattern establishedExtending runway is strategically rational

sonnetRun 1

70%

QS has an established pattern of ATM equity raises. With high annual burn and no revenue, the incentive to extend runway is always present. Base case is some ATM sales in 2026.

Established ATM patternHigh annual burn with no revenueActive ATM program

sonnetRun 2

62%

While the pattern suggests likely ATM activity, management may hold off to avoid dilution concerns and let billings demonstrate traction. However, base case for a pre-revenue company is continued equity issuance.

Management may hold off for disciplineBillings could extend runwayBase case is continued issuance

sonnetRun 3

73%

ATM programs are designed for ongoing sales. It would be unusual for a pre-revenue company with an active ATM to go a full calendar year without any sales. Even minimal sales would resolve YES.

ATM programs designed for ongoing salesFull year without sales unusualMinimal sales resolve YES

haikuRun 1

70%

Pre-revenue company with high annual burn, active ATM program, and demonstrated willingness. High probability of equity issuance in 2026.

Active ATM programDemonstrated willingnessPre-revenue with high burn

haikuRun 2

65%

Strong probability of ATM activity given pattern. Slight chance management holds off, but high burn makes this unlikely for a full year.

Strong patternSlight hold-off chanceFull year without raises unlikely

haikuRun 3

68%

Active ATM shelf, established pattern, pre-revenue with high burn. Even small opportunistic sales resolve YES. High probability.

Active shelf registrationOpportunistic sales likelyLow resolution bar

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if QS files a prospectus supplement for ATM sales, announces a secondary offering, or reports in any SEC filing that it sold shares under an existing or new ATM program during calendar year 2026 (January 1 through December 31, 2026).

Resolution Source

QS SEC filings (prospectus supplements, 8-K, 10-Q, 10-K) for calendar year 2026

Source Trigger

Cash runway and dilution events â€” monitor for ATM equity raises that compress per-share economics

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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