RuncheyResearch
Back to Forecasting
QXOActive

Will QXO reduce net debt/EBITDA below 3.0x by year-end 2026?

Resolves March 15, 2027(340d)
IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

43%
Likely No
Model Agreement96%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Current leverage at ~3.3x EBITDA is STRETCHED for a cyclical distributor. Reducing below 3.0x would validate the aggressive deleveraging thesis ($1.4B already prepaid). If leverage stays above 3.0x or increases, the STRETCHED assessment escalates, especially given seasonal cash flow volatility.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 38% – 50%Aggregate: 43%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
45%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
opusRun 2
40%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
opusRun 3
48%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 1
42%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 2
46%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 3
38%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 1
43%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 2
50%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 3
41%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if QXO reports net debt to trailing twelve-month EBITDA below 3.0x as of Q4 2026. Resolves NO if the ratio is 3.0x or above.

Resolution Source

QXO FY2026 earnings release or 10-K filing

Source Trigger

Current leverage ~3.3x EBITDA on cyclical business; $1.4B already prepaid demonstrating deleveraging commitment

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH
View QXO Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis