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Will Redwire win a prime or significant subcontract on the Golden Dome missile defense program by end of 2026?

Resolves January 15, 2027(281d)
IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

13%
Likely No
Model Agreement97%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The Golden Dome missile defense initiative represents a potential major catalyst for Redwire's space infrastructure capabilities. Winning a prime or significant subcontract would provide multi-year revenue visibility and validate the defense-space crossover thesis. This tests whether heritage technology translates to major program participation.

COMPETITIVE_POSITIONREGULATORY_EXPOSURE

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 8% – 18%Aggregate: 13%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
15%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
opusRun 2
10%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
opusRun 3
18%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 1
12%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 2
16%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 3
8%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 1
13%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 2
11%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 3
14%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Redwire announces a prime contract or subcontract worth $25M+ on the Golden Dome program by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if no such contract is announced.

Resolution Source

RDW press releases, SEC filings, or DoD contract announcements

Source Trigger

Golden Dome missile defense initiative represents potential major catalyst for space infrastructure capabilities

regulatory-readerREGULATORY_EXPOSURELOW
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