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RDW Forecast Markets

Redwire Corporation

7
Active Markets
31%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Apr 8, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

7 markets

Will RDW achieve average gross margin above 20% in H1 2026?

Active
17%
Likely No
97% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will RDW report FY2026 revenue at or above $450M (low end of guidance)?

Active
50%
Likely No
97% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will RDW reduce net unfavorable EAC adjustments below $15M in FY2026?

Active
25%
Likely No
97% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will Redwire receive a US Army LRR production contract award by end of 2026?

Active
44%
Likely No
97% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will RDW generate positive operating cash flow in H2 2026?

Active
15%
Likely No
97% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will AE Red Holdings complete its exit from RDW (reduce position below 5%) by end of 2026?

Active
53%
Likely Yes
96% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Redwire win a prime or significant subcontract on the Golden Dome missile defense program by end of 2026?

Active
13%
Likely No
97% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Aug 15, 2026
Will RDW achieve average gross margin above 20% in H1 2026?
Prediction: 17%
Jan 15, 2027
Will Redwire receive a US Army LRR production contract award by end of 2026?
Prediction: 44%
Jan 15, 2027
Will AE Red Holdings complete its exit from RDW (reduce position below 5%) by end of 2026?
Prediction: 53%
Jan 15, 2027
Will Redwire win a prime or significant subcontract on the Golden Dome missile defense program by end of 2026?
Prediction: 13%
Mar 15, 2027
Will RDW report FY2026 revenue at or above $450M (low end of guidance)?
Prediction: 50%
Mar 15, 2027
Will RDW reduce net unfavorable EAC adjustments below $15M in FY2026?
Prediction: 25%
Mar 15, 2027
Will RDW generate positive operating cash flow in H2 2026?
Prediction: 15%