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Will RDW reduce net unfavorable EAC adjustments below $15M in FY2026?

Resolves March 15, 2027(340d)
IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

25%
Likely No
Model Agreement97%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

FY2025 had $29.2M+ in unfavorable EAC adjustments — the primary driver of margin destruction. Reducing to below $15M would signal improving program execution and cost estimation. Persistence at $29M+ levels would escalate the QUESTIONABLE accounting integrity signal.

ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYUNIT_ECONOMICS

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 20% – 30%Aggregate: 25%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
28%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
opusRun 2
22%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
opusRun 3
25%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 1
30%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 2
26%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 3
20%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 1
24%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 2
27%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 3
23%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if RDW reports net unfavorable EAC adjustments below $15M in aggregate for FY2026. Resolves NO if net unfavorable EACs equal or exceed $15M.

Resolution Source

RDW FY2026 10-K or quarterly earnings releases

Source Trigger

FY2025 had $29.2M+ unfavorable EAC adjustments -- the primary driver of margin destruction and QUESTIONABLE accounting signal

fugazi-filterACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYMEDIUM
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