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Will Redwire receive a US Army LRR production contract award by end of 2026?

Resolves January 15, 2027(281d)
IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

44%
Likely No
Model Agreement97%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The US Army Long-Range Reconnaissance (LRR) production contract is the most frequently cited near-term catalyst by management. Award confirmation validates the Defense Tech growth narrative and provides production-phase revenue with predictable margins. Non-award would remove a key pillar of the FY2026 revenue plan.

COMPETITIVE_POSITIONREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 40% – 50%Aggregate: 44%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
48%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
opusRun 2
42%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
opusRun 3
45%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 1
50%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 2
44%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 3
40%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 1
46%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 2
43%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 3
41%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Redwire receives or announces a US Army LRR production contract award (not just a development or prototype contract) by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if no production award is announced.

Resolution Source

RDW press releases, SEC filings, or DoD contract announcements

Source Trigger

US Army Long-Range Reconnaissance production contract is the key near-term catalyst repeatedly cited by management

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONMEDIUM
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