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Will Rocket Lab's FY2026 full-year GAAP gross margin exceed 40%?

Resolves March 15, 2027(362d)

IG: 0.36

Current Prediction

48%

Likely No

Model Agreement72%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Why This Question Matters

GAAP gross margin tests whether the 6.3pp non-GAAP gap is narrowing or widening. The Fugazi Filter flagged non-GAAP emphasis and ASC 606 judgment as QUESTIONABLE. If GAAP margin exceeds 40%, it suggests stock-based compensation is becoming less material relative to revenue and the non-GAAP metrics are converging with GAAP reality. A widening gap would escalate the accounting integrity concern.

ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYUNIT_ECONOMICS

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 42% – 52%Aggregate: 48%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

48%

Q4 2025 GAAP margin was 38%. The full-year FY2025 was lower (earlier quarters had lower margins). Getting full-year FY2026 above 40% requires sustained improvement throughout the year. Margin expansion trend is real (780bps YoY) but SBC growth from Neutron hiring and SDA execution could offset operational gains. Slightly below coin flip.

Q4 38% but full-year lower780bps trend positiveSBC growth headwindFull-year average must clear 40%

opusRun 2

52%

The margin trajectory is strong and revenue growth at 38% provides scale benefits. As revenue grows faster than SBC, the GAAP/non-GAAP gap should narrow. If Q4 was 38% and the trend is improving, full-year 2026 averaging above 40% is plausible if the improvement continues through the year.

Strong margin trajectoryRevenue growth outpacing SBCGap narrowing thesisImprovement must sustain

opusRun 3

45%

The 40% GAAP threshold is demanding. SDA fixed-price contracts may carry lower margins than component sales, and the revenue mix is shifting toward more integrated platforms. Neutron pre-production costs could also flow through COGS. The non-GAAP margin may continue improving while GAAP lags due to SBC.

SDA contract margin pressureRevenue mix shiftNeutron pre-production costsSBC keeping gap wide

sonnetRun 1

45%

Full-year GAAP above 40% requires Q1-Q3 to average higher than Q4 2025's 38%. While the trend is positive, early quarters typically have lower margins. SBC is growing as the company scales. Below coin flip.

Early quarters typically lowerSBC scalingFull-year average challengeTrend positive but insufficient

sonnetRun 2

42%

The 6.3pp GAAP/non-GAAP gap suggests significant SBC. Growing headcount for Neutron and SDA programs will increase SBC. Even with operational margin improvement, the GAAP metric may remain below 40% for the full year. The non-GAAP figure will look better but that's not what the question asks.

6.3pp gap is significantGrowing SBC headcountGAAP specific questionNon-GAAP improvement may not transfer

sonnetRun 3

48%

Margin predictions for growth-stage aerospace companies are inherently uncertain. The trajectory favors improvement but the specific 40% threshold for full-year GAAP is a tight target. Low confidence.

Growth-stage uncertaintyTrajectory favors improvementTight targetLow confidence

haikuRun 1

50%

True coin flip. The margin trend is positive but SBC growth and revenue mix create offsetting pressures. Could go either way.

Positive trendSBC growth offsetRevenue mixCoin flip

haikuRun 2

45%

Slightly below 50%. The GAAP metric is harder to hit than non-GAAP. SBC is material and growing.

GAAP harder than non-GAAPMaterial SBCBelow 50%

haikuRun 3

48%

Near coin flip leaning slightly no. The operational improvements are real but SBC creates a persistent drag on GAAP margins.

Operational improvements realSBC drag persistentNear coin flip

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Rocket Lab's FY2026 full-year GAAP gross margin exceeds 40%. Resolves NO if GAAP gross margin is 40% or below.

Resolution Source

Rocket Lab FY2026 10-K filing or annual earnings release

Source Trigger

Non-GAAP emphasis could mask deteriorating GAAP metrics — track GAAP gross margin convergence

fugazi-filterACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYMEDIUM

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