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Will mosliciguat Ph2 PH-ILD topline be positive by 2027-03-31?

Resolves March 31, 2027(342d)

IG: 0.56

Current Prediction

45%

Likely No

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 22, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Mosliciguat (Pulmovant) Ph2 in pulmonary hypertension-interstitial lung disease is the highest-priority non-brepocitinib, non-IMVT program. A positive readout positions Pulmovant as the next potential Telavant-style monetization vehicle ($7.1B reference exit). A negative readout eliminates that option and narrows near-term Vant monetization optionality to IMVT and brepo alone. This is the cleanest test of whether Vant-model pipeline breadth continues to generate exit optionality. sGC class base rate ~50%; design quality and enrollment adequacy are question marks.

REVENUE_DURABILITYCOMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 40% – 48%Aggregate: 45%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

42%

PH-ILD is a harder indication than Group 1 PAH where sGC has approved precedent. Only approved PH-ILD therapy (inhaled treprostinil) has modest effect size ~31m 6MWD. Novel-mechanism Ph2 base rate in difficult PH variants: ~35-45%. 6MWD endpoint subject to placebo variability. Strict 'Ph3-advanceable magnitude' criterion further compresses (primary endpoint hit alone insufficient). Pulmovant is less mature than Priovant/Immunovant; less public Ph2 design detail available. Net 0.42.

PH-ILD harder than Group 1 PAH where sGC has approved precedentInhaled treprostinil benchmark modest effect size ~31m 6MWD'Ph3-advanceable magnitude' strict criterion compresses resolution

opusRun 2

45%

sGC class viability established by riociguat approval in Group 1 PAH + CTEPH; mosliciguat is a second-generation sGC stimulator with potentially improved profile. Ph2 in PH-ILD specifically has lower base rate (~35-45%) given the indication difficulty and historical failures (ambrisentan, sildenafil in INCREASE-type PH-ILD trials had mixed results). Roivant's Vant monetization pattern (Telavant $7.1B precedent) suggests they pursue programs with reasonable positive Ph2 expectations, providing modest selection-bias positive signal. Net 0.45.

sGC class viability established but PH-ILD-specific precedent weakHistorical PH-ILD Ph2 failures (ambrisentan, sildenafil mixed)Roivant Vant selection suggests positive expected-value programs

opusRun 3

40%

Conservative view. PH-ILD has been a historical graveyard for pulmonary hypertension therapies — ambrisentan (AMBITION-ILD halted), macitentan (null result), inhaled treprostinil only approved with modest effect. The mechanism-indication fit for sGC in PH-ILD is uncertain because ILD biology (fibrotic) differs from idiopathic PAH (vasoconstriction-dominated). 6MWD endpoint variability is high in PH-ILD due to respiratory confounding. Strict 'Ph3-advanceable' framing compresses further. Net 0.40.

PH-ILD historical graveyard: ambrisentan halted, macitentan null, treprostinil modestMechanism-indication fit uncertain for sGC in fibrotic PH-ILD biology6MWD endpoint variability high due to respiratory confounding

sonnetRun 1

45%

Ph2 in novel mechanism for PH-ILD: base rate ~35-45%. sGC class viability (riociguat) provides support; PH-ILD specifically is harder than Group 1 PAH. 6MWD variability and strict 'Ph3-advanceable' criterion compress. Net 0.45.

PH-ILD base rate 35-45%sGC class viability provides supportStrict advanceable-magnitude criterion

sonnetRun 2

42%

Slight negative tilt. PH-ILD history of failed mechanisms; 6MWD endpoint variability; limited public Ph2 design detail. Roivant Vant selection partial offset. Net 0.42.

PH-ILD failed-mechanism history6MWD endpoint variabilityLimited public Ph2 design detail

sonnetRun 3

48%

Slight positive tilt. sGC class has riociguat approval establishing class-level effect. Mosliciguat is second-gen sGC stimulator with potentially improved profile vs riociguat. Severe unmet need in PH-ILD (only inhaled treprostinil approved). Generous Q1 2027 window. Discount for novel-indication risk and 6MWD variability. Net 0.48.

sGC class viability (riociguat approved)Second-gen sGC with potentially improved profileGenerous Q1 2027 timing window

haikuRun 1

45%

PH-ILD Ph2 base rate 35-45%. sGC class support offsets PH-ILD difficulty. Strict advanceable-magnitude criterion compresses. Net 0.45.

PH-ILD base rate 35-45%sGC class supportStrict advanceable criterion

haikuRun 2

42%

PH-ILD historically difficult; 6MWD variability; limited public design detail. Net 0.42.

PH-ILD difficulty6MWD variabilityLimited design detail

haikuRun 3

45%

Base rate 35-45% for PH-ILD Ph2. sGC riociguat support positive. Generous timing window. Net 0.45.

PH-ILD base ratesGC riociguat supportGenerous timing window

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if, by 2027-03-31, Roivant or Pulmovant discloses via 8-K, press release, or investor presentation that the mosliciguat PH-ILD Ph2 primary or co-primary endpoint was met with statistical significance (p<0.05) on the pre-specified primary endpoint, AND management characterizes the result as supportive of Phase 3 advancement. Resolves NO if by 2027-03-31: (a) the primary endpoint was missed, (b) the trial was terminated for futility, (c) management characterizes the result as not supporting advancement, or (d) no topline readout has been disclosed.

Resolution Source

Roivant/Pulmovant 8-K filings, press releases, ClinicalTrials.gov, investor presentations

Source Trigger

Mosliciguat Ph2 PH-ILD readout (H2 CY2026)

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM

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