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SActive

Will SentinelOne record a goodwill impairment charge in the FY2026 10-K or any FY2027 quarterly filing?

Resolves October 15, 2026(181d)
IG: 0.40

Current Prediction

10%
Likely No
Model Agreement98%
Predictions3 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 12, 2026

Prediction History

Initial
13%
Mar 4
-3pp
Current
10%
Mar 12
Q4 FY2026 earnings

Strong revenue/margin trajectory and positive integration outcomes reduce impairment risk

Why This Question Matters

With projected goodwill of $870-910M (~35% of total assets) and a stock price decline of ~35%, impairment testing is a real risk. The Consolidation Calibrator noted Attivo's deception technology retirement did not trigger impairment despite $10M ARR churn. An impairment charge would definitively escalate both ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY (toward CONCERNING) and CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT (toward QUESTIONABLE), confirming overpayment in the acquisition strategy. Absence of impairment preserves current assessments but doesn't resolve them.

CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
Range: 9%11%Aggregate: 10%
Individual Predictions(3 runs)
opusRun 1
10%

Q4 FY2026 earnings materially strengthen the no-impairment case. Operating margin improving from 3.5% to a guided 10% for FY2027 directly reinforces the reporting unit's fair value under a discounted cash flow framework — higher near-term margins mean less reliance on terminal value to justify goodwill carrying amounts. Observo AI fully integrated with no impairment triggers, Prompt Security ARR doubled post-acquisition; neither acquisition is showing the kind of underperformance that would require a write-down. Cash at $770M with zero debt eliminates financial distress as a trigger. Stock at $13.09 AH still implies a market cap of ~$4.2B, preserving the large cushion over projected book value of ~$2.5-2.7B. The 12.2M share buyback at these prices signals management's own view that carrying values are well-supported. Base rate for goodwill impairment in a growing cybersecurity company with improving margins remains very low.

Operating margin improving 3.5%→10% strengthens DCF-based fair valueBoth FY2026 acquisitions showing positive integration — no write-down triggersMarket cap ~$4.2B preserves substantial cushion over book value
sonnetRun 1
9%

The Q4 FY2026 print resolves several of the key risk factors that supported a 13% prior estimate. First, no product line retirements were announced — unlike the Attivo deception technology retirement, neither Observo AI nor Prompt Security is being wound down; this eliminates the closest analog to a write-down trigger in SentinelOne's history. Second, the margin trajectory (guided 10% operating margin FY2027 vs. 3.5% in FY2026) substantially improves the income approach valuation of the reporting unit, making it harder for auditors to challenge the goodwill carrying value under ASC 350. Third, the $64M record net new ARR confirms the revenue base is expanding, not contracting. The stock price dip to $13.09 is modest (5%) and keeps market cap well above book. With the goodwill balance likely confirmed at $870-910M in the forthcoming 10-K, the ratio of market cap to goodwill is approximately 4.6-4.8x — impairment requires that ratio to approach 1.0x, which would demand catastrophic stock decline well outside the resolution window's likely range.

No product line retirements eliminates closest write-down analog10% operating margin guide strengthens income-approach fair valueMarket cap:goodwill ratio ~4.6-4.8x requires catastrophic decline to trigger impairment
sonnetRun 2
11%

Slightly above the other estimates to preserve some tail risk weight. The 5% AH stock decline post-earnings — even on a strong beat — reflects investor sentiment that growth deceleration (20% vs. prior 30%+ rates) may persist. If the market re-rates SentinelOne's long-term growth profile downward over the coming months, a continued stock drift toward $9-10 would begin to tighten the impairment cushion meaningfully. Additionally, the FY2026 10-K (due ~April 2026) will be the first mandatory annual impairment test to include the full $870-910M goodwill balance from both FY2026 acquisitions — auditors have not yet reviewed this at the new scale. These factors don't change the base case (NO impairment), but justify a slight premium above 10% for tail risk. The improving FCF trajectory (~10% FCF margin guided) is the most important counterweight — higher FCF expectations directly support reporting unit fair value.

5% AH decline on strong earnings hints at growth re-rating riskFirst 10-K to include full FY2026 acquisition goodwill — auditor scrutiny riskFCF margin ~10% guide is strongest counterweight to impairment risk

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if SentinelOne records any goodwill impairment charge in the FY2026 10-K (filed ~April 2026) or any quarterly 10-Q filing through Q2 FY2027 (filed ~September 2026). Impairment must be disclosed in the financial statements or notes. Resolves NO if no goodwill impairment is recorded in any filing through Q2 FY2027.

Resolution Source

SentinelOne 10-K FY2026 and 10-Q filings through Q2 FY2027 (SEC EDGAR)

Source Trigger

Goodwill impairment charge on any acquisition

consolidation-calibratorCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTMEDIUM
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