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Will SentinelOne disclose a quantitative net retention rate at Q4 FY2026 earnings?

Resolves March 31, 2026(27d)
IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

20%
Likely No
Model Agreement93%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 4, 2026

Why This Question Matters

NRR opacity is the single concern raised by three independent lenses (Gravy Gauge, Moat Mapper, Myth Meter). Last quantified at 110% in Q4 FY2025, management's shift to qualitative language creates uncertainty about the most important subscription durability metric. If management resumes quantitative NRR disclosure, the number itself resolves significant uncertainty across revenue durability, competitive position, and narrative gap. Continued opacity compounds transparency concerns alongside ARR disclosure retirement and CFO vacancy.

REVENUE_DURABILITYCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 15%28%Aggregate: 20%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
22%

NRR was last quantified at 110% in Q4 FY2025, then management shifted to qualitative language for 4 consecutive quarters. This coincides with product-level ARR disclosure retirement and CFO departure — a deliberate pattern of transparency reduction flagged by three independent lenses. Companies that stop disclosing a metric rarely resume unless the metric improves to a favorable level or investor pressure becomes too intense. The progressive opacity pattern (retiring product ARR, removing NRR) strongly suggests continued qualitative language. However, the new CFO might want to establish a transparency baseline, and year-end reporting creates a natural reset opportunity.

4 consecutive quarters of NRR opacity — established non-disclosure patternProgressive transparency reduction: product ARR retired, NRR qualitative, CFO departedNew CFO could use year-end as reset point but no evidence of intent
opusRun 2
28%

If NRR improved materially (back to 115%+), disclosing would be strategically beneficial against CrowdStrike's 120%+. If NRR deteriorated below 110%, disclosure would be harmful. The cessation strongly suggests decline. However, Q4 FY2026 is a year-end report, which companies sometimes use for annual disclosure resets. New CFO Paul Shott (started Aug 2025) might want to re-anchor expectations. The product ARR retirement was explicitly tied to the flex pricing model transition, but NRR opacity has a weaker strategic justification. Analyst pressure on NRR has been documented across three lenses. Still, the base rate for metric resumption after 4 quarters of opacity is low.

Year-end Q4 report is natural reset opportunity for disclosure policyNew CFO may want to establish transparency baselineBase rate for metric resumption after 4 quarters of opacity is historically low
opusRun 3
25%

SentinelOne is in an active acquisition phase (PingSafe, Stride, $100M+). Heavy M&A can temporarily distort organic NRR metrics since acquired customer bases have different retention profiles. Management may be waiting until acquired books season before disclosing a clean NRR number. If acquisitions stabilize and NRR is presentable, Q4 as year-end would be the natural resumption point. But the confirmed pattern is 4 quarters of deliberate reduction. The CrowdStrike NRR gap (120%+ vs SentinelOne's declining trajectory) makes disclosure competitively embarrassing. Module adoption quadrupling is positive but the NRR flow-through takes time.

M&A activity may distort organic NRR — management waiting for clean numbersCrowdStrike NRR gap at 120%+ makes disclosure competitively embarrassing4 quarters of deliberate opacity is strong pattern to break
sonnetRun 1
18%

Companies that stop reporting a metric almost never start again voluntarily after 4 quarters. The pattern is clear: retired product ARR, retired NRR, CFO departed. This is deliberate opacity. The question is not about NRR improvement — it is about disclosure behavior. Even if NRR improved, management has established a new disclosure regime without it. Resumption would contradict 4 quarters of established practice. The only scenario for YES is massive analyst pressure or SEC scrutiny, neither of which is evidenced in the analysis facts.

4 quarters of non-disclosure is an established regime, not a temporary gapPattern of progressive metric retirement indicates deliberate strategyNo evidence of analyst pressure or regulatory requirement forcing disclosure
sonnetRun 2
20%

The resolution criteria require a specific numeric NRR figure (e.g., '108%', '115%'). Management's qualitative language ('well into expansionary territory') is designed to satisfy directional concerns without committing to a number. There is no evidence the new CFO has signaled a change in disclosure policy. The progressive metric retirement pattern (product ARR then NRR) suggests a deliberate strategic shift rather than a temporary omission. A range statement would likely not satisfy the resolution criteria either.

Resolution requires specific numeric NRR — qualitative language does not resolve YESManagement language is calibrated to satisfy without committing to numbersNo CFO signals of disclosure policy change despite 2 quarters in seat
sonnetRun 3
23%

The base rate for SaaS companies resuming NRR disclosure after voluntary cessation is very low. Historical pattern: companies almost never resume unless driven by activist pressure, board change, regulatory requirement, or metric recovery to a favorable level. None of these triggering events are evidenced. The new CFO has been in seat since August 2025 — if he intended to restore NRR disclosure, he had Q1 and Q2 FY2026 to do so. Q4 as first full fiscal year end is plausible for a reset but remains unlikely given the established 4-quarter pattern of qualitative-only language.

Low base rate for voluntary NRR disclosure resumption in SaaSNew CFO had earlier opportunities to resume disclosure and did notYear-end is marginally more likely for disclosure policy changes
haikuRun 1
15%

Four quarters without NRR disclosure. Pattern of reducing transparency across multiple metrics. No evidence of reversal. CrowdStrike's 120%+ NRR makes disclosure embarrassing if SentinelOne has declined below 110%. The overwhelmingly likely outcome is continued qualitative language.

4 quarters of non-disclosure — established patternCrowdStrike NRR gap discourages disclosureNo evidence of reversal signals
haikuRun 2
18%

Management stopped disclosing NRR after Q4 FY2025. They also retired product ARR. CFO departed. Four quarters of qualitative language. The base rate for resumption is very low. If NRR were strong, they would disclose it — opacity implies deterioration. Continued opacity is the overwhelming base case.

If NRR were strong management would disclose — opacity implies deteriorationBase rate for metric resumption after 4 quarters is very lowMultiple metric retirements indicate strategic not temporary opacity
haikuRun 3
20%

Strong pattern of non-disclosure across 4 quarters. Multiple lenses flag this as deliberate. CrowdStrike gap makes disclosure embarrassing. New CFO has not reversed course in 2 quarters. Slight chance of year-end reset given it is the first full fiscal year end under new CFO, but the established pattern dominates.

Deliberate non-disclosure flagged by 3 independent lensesNew CFO has not signaled disclosure resumption in 2 quartersYear-end provides marginal reset opportunity but pattern dominates

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if SentinelOne provides a specific numeric net dollar retention rate (e.g., '108%', '115%') in the Q4 FY2026 earnings press release, earnings call transcript, or investor presentation. Resolves NO if management continues to use only qualitative language about retention without providing a specific numeric NRR figure.

Resolution Source

SentinelOne Q4 FY2026 earnings press release, earnings call transcript, and investor presentation (March 12, 2026)

Source Trigger

NRR disclosed below 105% or continued opacity at Q4 FY2026 earnings

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH
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