SABRActive

Will Sabre report year-end 2026 cash and equivalents below $600M?

Resolves March 15, 2027(324d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

35%

Likely No

Model Agreement95%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 25, 2026

Why This Question Matters

$812M usable cash entering 2026 is the runway buffer making the 2029-2030 refinancing wall navigable. With cash interest consuming nearly all EBITDA and CapEx + restructuring needing $200-250M, YE2026 cash position is the cleanest single measure of FUNDING_FRAGILITY trajectory. $600M is the threshold below which 24-36 month runway compresses to under 24 months, materially constraining 2027 refinancing optionality.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 32% – 38%Aggregate: 35%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

35%

$812M starting - $200-250M expected cash burn = $560-650M YE. $600M threshold sits in the central zone. Mgmt has strong narrative incentive to maintain runway optics. Risk skew: cash interest higher than $470M, restructuring run-rate continues. Probability ~35% reflecting middle-of-zone with mild positive bias toward NO from mgmt discipline.

Central zone $560-650MMgmt runway opticsCash interest riskRestructuring run-rate

opusRun 2

32%

Cash arithmetic: $812M starting - $470M interest - $100M CapEx + $585M EBITDA - $50M restructuring - $30M WC ≈ $747M. With downside scenarios (EBITDA misses, interest accrues higher, restructuring spikes), realistic range is $650-800M. $600M requires meaningful negative surprise. ~32%.

Cash arithmetic central case ~$747MRange $650-800M$600M requires negative surprise

opusRun 3

36%

Working capital and tax could swing $50-100M; restructuring is sticky $50-100M annual; CapEx $90-110M. If FCF goes negative by $50-100M (plausible given subscriber incentive headwind + cycle risk), YE cash could end $600-650M. Threshold sits at upper edge of moderate-stress range. ~36%.

WC swing $50-100MRestructuring stickyFCF could be -$50 to -$100MThreshold at moderate stress edge

sonnetRun 1

35%

$812M -> ~$700M central case (FCF roughly breakeven, CapEx + restructuring net cash drag $200M). $600M threshold at ~14% below central. Mgmt narrative protection floor. ~35%.

Central case ~$700M$600M = 14% below centralNarrative protection

sonnetRun 2

38%

Risk vector: subscriber incentive accruals could swing $50-100M; AI launch costs could be uncapitalized; activism legal expenses tail-end residual. Combined cash drag could push YE below $600M. Slightly elevated probability. ~38%.

Subscriber incentive cash effectAI launch costsActivism legal tail

sonnetRun 3

33%

Mgmt explicit narrative incentive: maintain runway optics for refinancing negotiations. Track record: deleveraging-then-cash-build pattern. Distribution Q1 momentum supports modest FCF positive. Lean below coin-flip. ~33%.

Mgmt runway opticsDeleveraging track recordBooking momentum FCF support

haikuRun 1

35%

$812M starting - $200M cash burn ≈ $600M. Threshold at central. Mgmt narrative pressure. ~35%.

Cash burn central caseThreshold near centralMgmt narrative

haikuRun 2

37%

Subscriber incentive cash drag + restructuring + WC risk push toward $600M. Bookings momentum offset. ~37%.

Cash drag risksBooking offset

haikuRun 3

34%

Mgmt has executed deleveraging discipline. $812M base + EBITDA - interest - CapEx - restructuring leaves moderate cushion. ~34%.

Deleveraging disciplineModerate cushion

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Sabre's reported year-end 2026 cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments (per the December 31, 2026 balance sheet in the 10-K filing) total less than $600.0M. Resolves NO if at or above $600.0M. Restricted cash is included if Sabre reports it as available for general corporate use.

Resolution Source

Sabre FY2026 10-K filing balance sheet

Source Trigger

Cash balance below $600M at year-end 2026

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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