SABRActive

Will Sabre's full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA print below $560M?

Resolves March 15, 2027(324d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

30%

Likely No

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 25, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Tests the load-bearing financial constraint identified in 4 of 7 lenses (R2: Cash interest is the binding economic constraint). $470M 2026 cash interest vs $585M expected EBITDA leaves only $115M cushion. Sub-$560M means cash interest essentially consumes all EBITDA, eliminates positive FCF in 2026, and shifts FUNDING_FRAGILITY from ELEVATED toward STRAINED. The 2029-2030 maturity wall hinges on EBITDA expansion to $625M+ by 2027 — a 2026 miss makes that runway materially harder.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYTAIL_RISK_SEVERITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 28% – 32%Aggregate: 30%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

30%

$585M committee anchor; $560M = 4% below central case. Mgmt has track record of delivering EBITDA guide and acute narrative protection incentive given $470M cash interest. Risk skew: subscriber incentive +9% pressure could compress 1-2%. Mid-single-digit volume growth from $766M Q1 base would translate to ~$590M FY EBITDA at flat margin. ~30% probability of missing to sub-$560M.

Committee anchor $585M4% below centralMgmt narrative incentiveSubscriber incentive pressure

opusRun 2

32%

Triangulating EBITDA arithmetic: revenue grows mid-single-digit ~$3.05B vs ~$2.93B 2025; flat margin = ~$590M EBITDA assuming inflation offset holds. Risk: tech+SG&A inflation breaks through ~3% wage pressure could compress to $560M. Cycle assumption holds. ~32%.

Revenue arithmetic central case ~$590MInflation offset assumptionWage pressure riskCycle assumption

opusRun 3

28%

Distressed-credit mgmt has very strong narrative protection incentive — must demonstrate $625M+ trajectory to 2027. Subscriber incentive headwind is real but bookings momentum offsets at incremental margin. Mgmt has explicitly excluded AI upside, providing buffer for upside surprise. ~28%.

Distressed-credit narrative pressureBookings offset at incremental marginAI upside buffer

sonnetRun 1

32%

$560M = central case minus 1 standard deviation in EBITDA delivery (5-6% miss). Travel/GDS sector mid-cycle: hit-rate ~65-70% for FY EBITDA guide. Sabre-specific risks: subscriber incentive trajectory + cycle assumption + tech/SG&A inflation. Sonnet bias: ~32%.

1 stddev missSector hit-rateThree specific risk factors

sonnetRun 2

28%

Cash interest $470M is acute pressure to deliver. Mgmt has executed deleveraging discipline. Booking momentum supports operational base case. Probability of FY missing $560M ~28% reflecting strong execution incentive vs cyclical and incentive-headwind risk.

Cash interest pressureDeleveraging disciplineBooking momentum

sonnetRun 3

31%

Base rate: distressed-credit deliver-or-die scenarios hit FY EBITDA guide ~70-75% of the time. Sabre is on the higher end given activism scrutiny + mgmt narrative protection. ~31%.

Distressed-credit deliver-or-dieActivism scrutinyNarrative protection

haikuRun 1

30%

$585M central; $560M = 4% miss. Mgmt narrative pressure. ~30%.

Central case anchor4% miss threshold

haikuRun 2

30%

Subscriber incentive +9% headwind and cycle risk. Booking momentum offset. ~30%.

Incentive headwindCycle riskBooking offset

haikuRun 3

29%

Mgmt narrative protection + active activism + cash interest pressure. Probability of miss to $560M ~29%.

Multi-factor execution pressure

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Sabre's reported full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA (as defined in management's earnings reconciliation, typically excluding stock-comp, restructuring, and amortization of customer contracts) is strictly less than $560.0M. Resolves NO if at or above $560.0M. Source: Sabre Q4 2026 / FY2026 earnings release, typically February 2027.

Resolution Source

Sabre FY2026 earnings release and 10-K filing

Source Trigger

2026 EBITDA tracking below $560M after Q2

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYCRITICAL

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