SGIActive

Will Tempur Sealy brand share at Mattress Firm hold above 60% in Q2 2026 disclosure?

Resolves August 15, 2026(114d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

48%

Likely No

Model Agreement95%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 22, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Tempur Sealy brand share at Mattress Firm is the primary sales-synergy lever. Exiting 2025 at low-60s vs management's low-60s target means the capture trajectory is near ceiling. If Q2 2026 holds at or above 60%, the $100M sales-synergy run-rate is validated. If it falls below, the synergy-revision thesis stalls and CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT carries uncertainty. FTC-mandated 43% third-party floor-slot reservation is a structural constraint on upside beyond low-60s.

CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 45% – 52%Aggregate: 48%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

48%

Decision-tree: P(share >=60% in Q2) * P(disclosure in Q2 earnings). Share level is at ceiling per management language, so Q2 likely at 59-63% range, giving ~0.70 probability of >=60%. But disclosure cadence is uncertain — SGI disclosed exit-quarter share on Q4 2025 call but may not provide a Q2 update if they shift to annual-only cadence. P(disclosure) ~0.70. Joint: 0.70 * 0.70 = 0.49. Round to 0.48.

Share level is near ceiling; Q2 range 59-63% implies ~70% chance >=60%Disclosure cadence risk: company may shift to annual-only updatesJoint probability 0.70 * 0.70 = ~0.49

opusRun 2

45%

More cautious view: Q2 is seasonally weaker than Q4, and summer product mix differs from holiday mix. If share measurement is sales-weighted, the mix shift could mechanically push share down 1-2pp. Combined with disclosure cadence uncertainty (investor call/earnings release may not include share metric in Q2 specifically), probability drops. Key downside risk is that even if underlying share is 62%, the Q2 specific disclosure may not happen, resolving NO.

Seasonal product mix shift could compress reported share 1-2ppQ2 earnings cadence less likely to include share disclosure than Q4 callResolution requires both level and disclosure

opusRun 3

50%

Base rate math: exited 2025 at 'low 60s' (60-63% central range). Natural fade 1-2pp in a given quarter is common. Probability share is exactly >=60% = ~0.65. Probability disclosure happens = ~0.70-0.75. Joint ~0.49. Coin flip at 0.50.

Low-60s central estimate implies 65% chance share >=60%Disclosure cadence 70-75% probabilityJoint probability 0.49-0.52

sonnetRun 1

45%

Two multiplicative hurdles: share level AND disclosure. Share level at ~60-63% is near-ceiling and sensitive to quarterly mix (~65% P(>=60%)). Disclosure cadence is uncertain — Q2 releases often lighter on detail than year-end calls. ~0.70 P(disclosure in Q2 quarter disclosure). Joint: ~0.45.

Two-hurdle resolution (level + disclosure)Q2 releases historically lighter in operational detailSeasonal mix risk

sonnetRun 2

50%

Share level likely holds in low-60s given exit-2025 level and continuing sales synergy capture. Disclosure cadence is the genuine risk. SGI's transparency with investors has been good, so Q2 disclosure is probable but not certain. Coin flip given disclosure uncertainty.

Share level likely holds absent major disruptionDisclosure cadence the primary source of uncertaintyCoin flip on joint resolution

sonnetRun 3

47%

Conservative view on disclosure: while SGI has been transparent, Q2 quarterly releases often focus on financials rather than granular share metrics. Share level itself should be ~60-63% but the level-plus-disclosure joint probability settles just below 50%.

Share level reasonably stableQuarterly disclosure cadence uncertainJoint probability under 50%

haikuRun 1

50%

Share level at ceiling with some downside risk to 60%. Disclosure cadence uncertain. Coin flip.

Ceiling share levelDisclosure uncertaintyCoin flip

haikuRun 2

48%

Slight lean NO given the joint-hurdle nature of the resolution. Share likely in range but disclosure isn't guaranteed. 0.48.

Joint-hurdle resolution penalizes NO-disclosureShare range likely near targetSlight lean NO

haikuRun 3

52%

SGI has been transparent on Mattress Firm metrics. Q2 disclosure likely. Share level at or above 60% likely given exit-2025 position. Settle at 0.52.

SGI transparency precedentExit-2025 low-60s supports Q2 levelSlight lean YES

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if SGI Q2 2026 earnings disclosure (10-Q or earnings release) shows Tempur Sealy brand share at Mattress Firm at >=60% (exit-quarter or reported quarter). Resolves NO if share is disclosed <60%, or if no quarterly share disclosure is provided by 2026-08-15 (Q2 earnings release date).

Resolution Source

SGI Q2 2026 earnings release, 10-Q filing, or management call transcript

Source Trigger

Mattress Firm balance-of-share progression — tracking vs the low-60s ceiling

consolidation-calibratorCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTHIGH

View SGI Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis