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Will SMCI achieve at least $40B in FY2026 net sales (ending June 2026)?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Management raised FY2026 guidance to at least $40B from $33B. This tests the reliability of management guidance given the company's governance history. A miss would widen the DIVERGING narrative-reality gap. A beat would strengthen the growth thesis, though margin quality matters more than revenue magnitude for signal reassessment.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
H1 $17.7B. Q3 guided $12.3B+. Need $10B Q4 which is below Q2 $12.7B.
Management says $40B is conservative. Backlog strong. Component constraints are the risk.
Revenue timing risk but full year should smooth. $1.5B slipped before, could happen again.
Math favorable but rev rec history and supply constraints create downside risk.
AI demand strong. Guidance raised twice. $40B seems achievable.
Q2 showed $12.7B capacity. Even $11B average in H2 gets to ~$39.7B.
Math in their favor. Q3 guide solid.
Component shortages main risk but demand strong.
Guidance raised twice, management confident.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if SMCI's FY2026 full-year net sales (as reported in Q4 FY2026 earnings or 10-K) equals or exceeds $40.0 billion.
Resolution Source
SMCI FY2026 annual earnings release
Source Trigger
Management guidance credibility
Full multi-lens equity analysis