Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive

SMRActive

Will NuScale cash and investments fall below $750M by end of FY2026?

Resolves March 15, 2027(227d)

IG: 0.52

Current Prediction

45%

Likely No

Model Agreement70%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Why This Question Matters

With ~$1B post-close cash and $170-200M annual burn, plus unknown ENTRA1 milestone obligations, the cash trajectory is a key stress indicator. Below $750M by year-end 2026 (without binding PPA) would signal faster-than-expected depletion and potential reflexive funding risk.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 42% – 48%Aggregate: 45%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

42%

Starting at ~$1B post-close, $170-200M annual burn would put EOY at $800-830M before ENTRA1 payments. But $1B ATM program could offset. Unknown ENTRA1 milestone payments are the wildcard.

$1B starting point$170-200M burnATM offset possibleENTRA1 payments unknown

opusRun 2

48%

If additional ENTRA1 milestone payments of $200M+ occur, cash drops below $750M. Management was opaque about future PMA obligations. The risk is asymmetric -- ATM at $12 is painful dilution.

ENTRA1 payment riskOpaque PMA obligationsATM dilution painful

opusRun 3

45%

$750M threshold requires $250M+ net cash outflow from $1B base. Operating burn alone gets close. Any additional ENTRA1 payment pushes below. But ATM proceeds could replenish.

$250M+ outflow neededOperating burn approaches thresholdATM replenishment possible

sonnetRun 1

48%

Management will likely use ATM to maintain cash above comfort levels. But if stock drops to $8-10, ATM efficiency drops and dilution becomes more painful. Depends on stock price trajectory.

ATM management likelyStock price dependentDilution efficiency

sonnetRun 2

42%

CFO stated runway is not an issue. $1B is a strong starting position. Management has demonstrated willingness to raise capital. Below $750M is possible but not the base case.

CFO confidenceStrong starting positionManagement willing to raise

sonnetRun 3

45%

45% probability accounts for unknown ENTRA1 obligations as the primary risk. Without those payments, $750M+ likely. With a large milestone, sub-$750M possible.

ENTRA1 primary riskWithout payments above $750MWith payments below

haikuRun 1

45%

$1B minus $200M burn = $800M. Close to threshold but likely above $750M without major additional payments.

Simple mathClose to thresholdLikely above

haikuRun 2

42%

Management will try to maintain cash above psychological floor. ATM provides mechanism. 42%.

Cash management incentiveATM mechanism42%

haikuRun 3

48%

Unknown ENTRA1 payments make this harder to predict. 48% reflects significant uncertainty.

Unknown paymentsSignificant uncertainty48%

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if NuScale total cash, cash equivalents, and investments fall below $750M as of December 31, 2026.

Resolution Source

NuScale 10-K for FY2026

Source Trigger

Cash balance drops below $500M without binding PPA

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

View SMR Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis