SMRActive

Will NuScale cash and investments fall below $750M by end of FY2026?

Resolves March 15, 2027(363d)

IG: 0.52

Current Prediction

45%

Likely No

Model Agreement70%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Why This Question Matters

With ~$1B post-close cash and $170-200M annual burn, plus unknown ENTRA1 milestone obligations, the cash trajectory is a key stress indicator. Below $750M by year-end 2026 (without binding PPA) would signal faster-than-expected depletion and potential reflexive funding risk.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 42% – 48%Aggregate: 45%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

42%

Starting at ~$1B post-close, $170-200M annual burn would put EOY at $800-830M before ENTRA1 payments. But $1B ATM program could offset. Unknown ENTRA1 milestone payments are the wildcard.

$1B starting point$170-200M burnATM offset possibleENTRA1 payments unknown

opusRun 2

48%

If additional ENTRA1 milestone payments of $200M+ occur, cash drops below $750M. Management was opaque about future PMA obligations. The risk is asymmetric -- ATM at $12 is painful dilution.

ENTRA1 payment riskOpaque PMA obligationsATM dilution painful

opusRun 3

45%

$750M threshold requires $250M+ net cash outflow from $1B base. Operating burn alone gets close. Any additional ENTRA1 payment pushes below. But ATM proceeds could replenish.

$250M+ outflow neededOperating burn approaches thresholdATM replenishment possible

sonnetRun 1

48%

Management will likely use ATM to maintain cash above comfort levels. But if stock drops to $8-10, ATM efficiency drops and dilution becomes more painful. Depends on stock price trajectory.

ATM management likelyStock price dependentDilution efficiency

sonnetRun 2

42%

CFO stated runway is not an issue. $1B is a strong starting position. Management has demonstrated willingness to raise capital. Below $750M is possible but not the base case.

CFO confidenceStrong starting positionManagement willing to raise

sonnetRun 3

45%

45% probability accounts for unknown ENTRA1 obligations as the primary risk. Without those payments, $750M+ likely. With a large milestone, sub-$750M possible.

ENTRA1 primary riskWithout payments above $750MWith payments below

haikuRun 1

45%

$1B minus $200M burn = $800M. Close to threshold but likely above $750M without major additional payments.

Simple mathClose to thresholdLikely above

haikuRun 2

42%

Management will try to maintain cash above psychological floor. ATM provides mechanism. 42%.

Cash management incentiveATM mechanism42%

haikuRun 3

48%

Unknown ENTRA1 payments make this harder to predict. 48% reflects significant uncertainty.

Unknown paymentsSignificant uncertainty48%

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if NuScale total cash, cash equivalents, and investments fall below $750M as of December 31, 2026.

Resolution Source

NuScale 10-K for FY2026

Source Trigger

Cash balance drops below $500M without binding PPA

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

View SMR Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis