SMRActive

Will NuScale H1 2026 total revenue fall below $10M?

Resolves September 15, 2026(182d)

IG: 0.72

Current Prediction

65%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement72%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Q4 2025 revenue was $1.8M as RoPower work completed. This market tests whether a revenue gap materializes in H1 2026. Below $10M total for H1 would confirm FRAGILE revenue and increase pressure on ATM dilution. Above $10M would suggest new revenue sources are emerging faster than expected.

REVENUE_DURABILITYFUNDING_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 58% – 72%Aggregate: 65%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

62%

Q4 2025 was $1.8M. RoPower FEED 2 complete. Romania pre-EPC not starting until Q2, and NuScale revenue depends on Fluor-RoPower contract. ENTRA1/TVA PPA unlikely by Q2. Revenue gap appears likely.

Q4 was $1.8MRoPower gapPre-EPC delayed

opusRun 2

68%

Without a binding PPA or new contract, NuScale has no identified revenue source for H1 2026 beyond residual engineering services. $10M threshold is generous for a company that did $1.8M in Q4.

No identified H1 revenue source$1.8M Q4 baseline$10M threshold generous

opusRun 3

60%

Romania pre-EPC could generate some revenue if Fluor-RoPower negotiations complete quickly. Small engineering services may continue. But $10M requires meaningful new work.

Romania pre-EPC potentialSmall services continue$10M requires new work

sonnetRun 1

70%

The revenue bridge is clearly broken. Q4 at $1.8M signals near-zero run rate. Even optimistic scenarios suggest H1 below $10M. The only question is whether Romania pre-EPC starts generating revenue.

Revenue bridge brokenNear-zero run rateRomania timing

sonnetRun 2

65%

Management said Romania pre-EPC starts Q2 2026 with 15-month duration. Even if it starts, first-quarter revenue recognition may be minimal. H1 below $10M is more likely than not.

Pre-EPC Q2 startRevenue recognition timingBelow $10M likely

sonnetRun 3

58%

Some residual engineering work or consulting revenue could persist. NuScale may find ways to recognize revenue from existing relationships. But the structural gap is real.

Residual work possibleRevenue recognition flexibilityStructural gap real

haikuRun 1

72%

Q4 was $1.8M. Simple extrapolation suggests H1 well below $10M. RoPower complete, TVA PPA not signed. Revenue gap is the base case.

Q4 extrapolationRoPower completeTVA PPA unsigned

haikuRun 2

60%

Romania pre-EPC could provide some uplift. But even with that, $10M is a high bar for 6 months of pre-EPC ramp.

Romania uplift possible$10M still high bar6 month ramp

haikuRun 3

65%

65% probability of below $10M seems right given the Q4 baseline and structural revenue gap.

Q4 baseline lowStructural gap65% reasonable

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if NuScale combined Q1 and Q2 2026 total revenue is less than $10 million.

Resolution Source

NuScale 10-Q for Q2 2026

Source Trigger

Q1-Q2 2026 quarterly revenue below $5M indicating revenue gap

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM

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