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SMRActive

Will SMR stock close below $8 at any point before end of Q3 2026?

Resolves October 1, 2026(64d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

35%

Likely No

Model Agreement65%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The stock price is a proxy for the narrative-reality gap and ATM viability. Below $8 would push the stock toward the 52-week low, reduce ATM proceeds efficiency, and potentially trigger institutional exit. Above $15 would suggest the market is regaining confidence in the ENTRA1/TVA thesis.

NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPFUNDING_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 30% – 38%Aggregate: 35%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

32%

Stock at $11.97, 52-week low $11.08. Below $8 requires another 33% decline. Nuclear sentiment could shift, class action could worsen, or revenue gap could spook investors. But $1.3B cash provides valuation floor.

33% additional decline neededCash provides floorMultiple catalysts could trigger

opusRun 2

35%

The stock already fell from $53 to $12. The decline velocity has slowed near $12, suggesting some price discovery. But nuclear sentiment is fragile and ENTRA1 news could accelerate selling.

Decline velocity slowingPrice discovery near $12Sentiment fragile

opusRun 3

38%

Fluor still has 40M shares to sell. Continued selling pressure plus potential negative catalysts (class action progress, revenue miss) could push below $8. 38%.

Fluor selling continuesMultiple negative catalysts38%

sonnetRun 1

35%

$8 is 33% below current. Stock already near 52-week low. Nuclear stocks have broad market correlation. A broader selloff or NuScale-specific bad news could trigger. 35%.

33% declineNear 52-week lowBroad correlation

sonnetRun 2

30%

$1B+ cash and NRC approval provide fundamental floor. Below $8 implies market cap under $2.4B, which is approaching cash value. Value buyers may emerge.

Cash floorApproaching cash valueValue buyers

sonnetRun 3

38%

The question is whether any single catalyst causes a 33% decline within 6 months. Class action progress, ENTRA1 dissolution, or broader nuclear sentiment shift could do it. 38%.

Single catalyst riskMultiple potential triggers6 month window

haikuRun 1

35%

Moderate probability. Stock is weak but $8 is a significant further decline. 35%.

Moderate probabilitySignificant further decline35%

haikuRun 2

32%

Cash per share and NRC asset provide support. Sub-$8 requires capitulation. 32%.

Cash supportNRC assetRequires capitulation

haikuRun 3

38%

Over 6 months, a 33% decline from near lows is plausible but not the base case. 38%.

6 month windowPlausible not base case38%

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if SMR stock closes below $8.00 on any trading day between March 17, 2026 and September 30, 2026.

Resolution Source

NYSE closing prices

Source Trigger

Additional ATM shares issued at prices below $10

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYMEDIUM

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