Will SQM submit the Salar Futuro environmental impact study by year-end 2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Salar Futuro is SQM's next-generation growth project. Environmental study submission is expected mid-2026. On-time submission validates the expansion pipeline and Codelco JV's facilitation of growth. Delay beyond 2026 signals political interference and weakens the growth narrative.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.5 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.55 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.48 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.45 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.5 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.42 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.45 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.48 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.42 based on analysis facts.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if SQM submits a formal environmental impact study for Salar Futuro to Chilean authorities by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if no submission is made.
Resolution Source
SQM press releases, Chilean environmental authority filings, or quarterly earnings disclosures
Source Trigger
Salar Futuro environmental study submission expected mid-2026. Delays beyond 2027 signal political interference.
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