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Will SQM achieve FY2026 EPS above $2.00?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
FY2025 EPS collapsed to ~$0.80 from FY2023's ~$6.00. The market's ~35x earnings multiple implies significant recovery expectations. If EPS exceeds $2.00, it validates the trough-to-recovery narrative. If it doesn't, the DIVERGING narrative gap widens and current valuation becomes harder to justify.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.4 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.45 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.42 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.38 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.35 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.4 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.38 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.35 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.33 based on analysis facts.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if SQM reports FY2026 earnings per share above $2.00. Resolves NO if EPS is $2.00 or below.
Resolution Source
SQM FY2026 20-F filing or earnings release
Source Trigger
FY2025 EPS ~$0.80, collapsed from ~$6.00 in FY2023. Valuation at ~35x demands significant recovery.
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