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Will SQM report Q2 2026 total revenue above $1.3 billion?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Near-term revenue trajectory tests whether the lithium price recovery translates into actual financial improvement. Q2 is the first full quarter with 'significantly stronger' prices. Revenue above $1.3B would confirm the recovery is materializing; below would suggest volume/mix headwinds offset price gains.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.4 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.42 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.38 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.35 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.38 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.33 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.35 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.32 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.3 based on analysis facts.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if SQM reports Q2 2026 total revenue exceeding $1.3 billion. Resolves NO if revenue is $1.3 billion or below.
Resolution Source
SQM Q2 2026 earnings release
Source Trigger
Q1 2026 lithium prices significantly stronger than Q4 2025's ~$10/kg. Q2 is first full quarter to capture recovery.
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