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Will StubHub report FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA at or above $400M?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Tests EXPECTATIONS_PRICED REASONABLE_AT_DISCOUNT directly. FY26 guide is $400-420M (+72-81% YoY from $232M base). The $400M low end is the floor that needs to hold for the 6.6x forward multiple thesis. Bridge contains take-rate, S&M efficiency, World Cup contribution, and direct-issuance/advertising ramp assumptions — any one breaking puts pressure on the print. Class action allegations about Adj EBITDA quality add an integrity layer. A miss compounds NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP DIVERGING with a quantitative miss. A clean print supports multiple expansion at current discounted valuation.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
$400M is LOW end of $400-420M guide — sandbagging convention applies. Mgmt issued guide AFTER walking back direct issuance and advertising, so basis is realistic. +75% YoY hurdle is steep for first-time-public-company guide. Take-rate reversion (19% → ~20%) is the largest single bridge variable. PROVEN unit economics + 80%+ adj gross margin support flow-through. Class-action accounting concerns add tail risk. Coin-flip-with-modest-lean above. ~55%.
Cautious: first-time-public guide rates of meeting low-end are 50-60% but +72% YoY hurdle is unusually steep. Mgmt walked back two pillars in first earnings call — pattern of over-promise-and-cut. Bridge requires 4-5 things to go right (take-rate revert + S&M leverage + cost discipline + World Cup contribution + no class-action restatement). Coin-flip. ~50%.
Constructive: low-end guide gives sandbagging cushion. Mgmt's 2025 was investment year; 2026 should harvest. Take-rate compression in 2025 was deliberate and reversible. World Cup 2026 supports the GMS lift; FTC comp laps May. Asset-light agency model means small revenue lift flows meaningfully to EBITDA. Stock at sub-$7 already prices substantial miss risk — base rate of low-end-guide-hits for recently-public companies is ~55-65%. ~58%.
Low-end of guide gives some cushion. +75% YoY hurdle is steep but reflects 2025 investment-mode trough. Take-rate reversion is the swing factor. PROVEN unit economics support the bridge mechanics. Class-action overhang on Adj EBITDA quality adds tail risk. Modest lean above coin-flip. ~54%.
Bridge requires multiple pieces — small risks compound. First-time public guide accuracy patterns: meet-or-beat low end ~50-60% baseline. STUB specific: walk-backs in first earnings indicate confidence lower than typical. Mgmt did NOT cut FY26 guide despite walking back direct issuance/advertising — which signals confidence in core marketplace acceleration. Net coin-flip with mild lean. ~52%.
Mgmt did NOT cut FY26 guide after walking back direct issuance + advertising — strong signal that core marketplace + take-rate reversion alone supports $400M+. Walk-back was about timing of contribution from secondary pillars; primary marketplace bridge is intact in mgmt's view. Combined with low-end cushion + sandbagging convention, modest upward lean. ~56%.
Low end of guide cushion. +75% YoY steep but 2025 was investment trough. Take-rate revert critical. ~55%.
First-time public guide. Multi-piece bridge. Walk-back precedent. Coin-flip with mild lean. ~52%.
Guide held despite walk-backs supports core marketplace confidence. Sandbagging + low-end cushion. ~56%.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if StubHub Holdings (NYSE: STUB) reports FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA at or above $400M per the company's FY2026 earnings release or 10-K. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: STUB FY2026 earnings release / 10-K.
Resolution Source
STUB FY2026 earnings release / 10-K
Source Trigger
FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guide $400-420M (+72-81% YoY from $232M base); load-bearing for the bull narrative — guide must hold for multiple expansion thesis
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