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Will StubHub report FY2026 GMS at or above $9.9B?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Tests the load-bearing 'marketplace is healthy and scaling' assumption. FY25 GMS $9.16B (+18% ex-Eras); FY26 guide $9.9-10.1B. The $9.9B threshold is the LOW end of guide. World Cup 2026 (Tier-1 event vs. Eras-tier) is the biggest +/- vs. guide. ~10% of GMS is regulatory-target subset; 90% diversified. FTC all-in pricing 5-month YoY headwind laps May 2026. A clean print at/above $9.9B confirms REVENUE_DURABILITY=CONDITIONAL holding; below would push toward FRAGILE and threaten the Adj EBITDA guide bridge.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
$9.9B is LOW end of $9.9-10.1B mgmt guide — sandbagging convention applies. FY25 ex-Eras +18% growth supports underlying compounding. World Cup 2026 Tier-1 lift vs. Eras-tier base. FTC comp laps May 2026 (~7 months clean). ~50% NA share + viagogo international footprint diversification. Below-low-end-of-guide miss for marketplace stocks: 30-40% baseline. ~62%.
Cautious: walk-back precedent in first earnings call signals confidence is fragile. FTC comp pressure 4/5 lap months adverse in Q1/early-Q2. Competitive listing-supply erosion to SeatGeek/Vivid Seats real. Macro consumer-discretionary risk in 2H. Below-guide-low-end probability for first-time-public guide ~30-40%. Net modest lean above coin-flip. ~58%.
Constructive: GMS is the more-stable variable vs. revenue (GMS doesn't depend on take rate). FY25 ex-Eras +18% baseline + Tier-1 World Cup support trajectory. International growing 'multiples of NA' provides diversification cushion. Mgmt guide of +8-10% is below historical 'low double digit' market growth — already conservative. Low end of conservative guide should be hit. ~65%.
Low end of guide gives cushion. FY25 ex-Eras +18% momentum + Tier-1 World Cup support trajectory. ~50% NA share + viagogo diversification. FTC comp laps May 2026 (clean back half). Modest lean above coin-flip; first-time-public guide miss-low-end rate moderate. ~62%.
First-time-public guide accuracy patterns: meet-or-beat low end ~55-65%. STUB specific: walk-backs in first earnings indicate caution. But mgmt did NOT cut FY26 GMS guide — confidence in marketplace trajectory is implicit. Diversification across ~10% bulk-reseller subset and 90% other categories supports stability. ~60%.
GMS is more stable than revenue (no take-rate dependency). World Cup Tier-1 + International 'multiples of NA' growth + ex-Eras +18% baseline. Search trends ('concert tickets' rising 39→52) supportive. ~63%.
Low end of guide cushion. Ex-Eras +18% momentum. World Cup + FTC laps May. ~62%.
First-time public guide accuracy ~55-65%. Walk-back caution. Diversified GMS. ~60%.
GMS more stable than revenue. World Cup Tier-1. International growth. ~63%.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if StubHub Holdings (NYSE: STUB) reports FY2026 Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) at or above $9.9B per the company's FY2026 earnings release or 10-K. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: STUB FY2026 earnings release / 10-K.
Resolution Source
STUB FY2026 earnings release / 10-K
Source Trigger
World Cup 2026 GMS contribution (Tier-1 event); FY26 GMS guide $9.9-10.1B (~9% midpoint); validates gravy-gauge growth-pillar assumption
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