STUBActive

Will StubHub report FY2026 GMS at or above $9.9B?

Resolves March 15, 2027(323d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

62%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement95%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 25, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Tests the load-bearing 'marketplace is healthy and scaling' assumption. FY25 GMS $9.16B (+18% ex-Eras); FY26 guide $9.9-10.1B. The $9.9B threshold is the LOW end of guide. World Cup 2026 (Tier-1 event vs. Eras-tier) is the biggest +/- vs. guide. ~10% of GMS is regulatory-target subset; 90% diversified. FTC all-in pricing 5-month YoY headwind laps May 2026. A clean print at/above $9.9B confirms REVENUE_DURABILITY=CONDITIONAL holding; below would push toward FRAGILE and threaten the Adj EBITDA guide bridge.

REVENUE_DURABILITYGROWTH_TRAJECTORY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 58% – 65%Aggregate: 62%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

62%

$9.9B is LOW end of $9.9-10.1B mgmt guide — sandbagging convention applies. FY25 ex-Eras +18% growth supports underlying compounding. World Cup 2026 Tier-1 lift vs. Eras-tier base. FTC comp laps May 2026 (~7 months clean). ~50% NA share + viagogo international footprint diversification. Below-low-end-of-guide miss for marketplace stocks: 30-40% baseline. ~62%.

Low end sandbaggingFY25 ex-Eras +18% momentumWorld Cup Tier-1FTC comp laps May

opusRun 2

58%

Cautious: walk-back precedent in first earnings call signals confidence is fragile. FTC comp pressure 4/5 lap months adverse in Q1/early-Q2. Competitive listing-supply erosion to SeatGeek/Vivid Seats real. Macro consumer-discretionary risk in 2H. Below-guide-low-end probability for first-time-public guide ~30-40%. Net modest lean above coin-flip. ~58%.

Walk-back precedentFTC comp Q1 headwindCompetitive supply erosionMacro 2H risk

opusRun 3

65%

Constructive: GMS is the more-stable variable vs. revenue (GMS doesn't depend on take rate). FY25 ex-Eras +18% baseline + Tier-1 World Cup support trajectory. International growing 'multiples of NA' provides diversification cushion. Mgmt guide of +8-10% is below historical 'low double digit' market growth — already conservative. Low end of conservative guide should be hit. ~65%.

GMS more stableConservative guide alreadyInternational diversificationWorld Cup Tier-1

sonnetRun 1

62%

Low end of guide gives cushion. FY25 ex-Eras +18% momentum + Tier-1 World Cup support trajectory. ~50% NA share + viagogo diversification. FTC comp laps May 2026 (clean back half). Modest lean above coin-flip; first-time-public guide miss-low-end rate moderate. ~62%.

Low-end cushionEx-Eras momentumWorld CupFTC laps May

sonnetRun 2

60%

First-time-public guide accuracy patterns: meet-or-beat low end ~55-65%. STUB specific: walk-backs in first earnings indicate caution. But mgmt did NOT cut FY26 GMS guide — confidence in marketplace trajectory is implicit. Diversification across ~10% bulk-reseller subset and 90% other categories supports stability. ~60%.

First-time-public patternGuide held implicit confidenceDiversified GMSWalk-back caution

sonnetRun 3

63%

GMS is more stable than revenue (no take-rate dependency). World Cup Tier-1 + International 'multiples of NA' growth + ex-Eras +18% baseline. Search trends ('concert tickets' rising 39→52) supportive. ~63%.

GMS stableWorld CupInternational growthSearch trends supportive

haikuRun 1

62%

Low end of guide cushion. Ex-Eras +18% momentum. World Cup + FTC laps May. ~62%.

Low end cushionEx-Eras momentumWorld Cup

haikuRun 2

60%

First-time public guide accuracy ~55-65%. Walk-back caution. Diversified GMS. ~60%.

First-time publicDiversified GMSWalk-back caution

haikuRun 3

63%

GMS more stable than revenue. World Cup Tier-1. International growth. ~63%.

GMS stableWorld CupInternational growth

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if StubHub Holdings (NYSE: STUB) reports FY2026 Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) at or above $9.9B per the company's FY2026 earnings release or 10-K. Resolves NO otherwise. Source: STUB FY2026 earnings release / 10-K.

Resolution Source

STUB FY2026 earnings release / 10-K

Source Trigger

World Cup 2026 GMS contribution (Tier-1 event); FY26 GMS guide $9.9-10.1B (~9% midpoint); validates gravy-gauge growth-pillar assumption

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

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