STZActive

Will Constellation Brands report FY27 full-year beer pricing realization above 2.0%?

Resolves April 30, 2027(369d)

IG: 0.36

Current Prediction

24%

Likely No

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 25, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Tests whether STZ's pricing power remains intact at the high end of its own guide. FY27 guide of 1%-2% at LOW end of historical range was interpreted by Moat Mapper as a tell of constrained pricing power. Above 2% would signal pricing power resilience and de-escalate COMPETITIVE_POSITION concern; below 2% confirms the constrained-pricing framing.

COMPETITIVE_POSITIONREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 20% – 27%Aggregate: 24%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

23%

Mgmt guide 1-2% explicitly at LOW end of historical range. Pacifico mix dilution embedded structurally. Above 2% requires beating high end of guide. Base rate of beating high end: ~15-25%. April carve-out modestly supports flexibility. ~23%.

LOW end signalPacifico structural dilutionBeat-high-end base rate

opusRun 2

20%

Pacifico continues broadening — mix dilution drag is real and accelerating, not waning. Hispanic-consumer affordability concerns force constrained list pricing. Mgmt set guide at LOW end deliberately — implies they themselves see 2% as ceiling not floor. ~20%.

Pacifico dilution acceleratingHispanic affordabilityLOW-end signal as ceiling

opusRun 3

27%

Modelo Especial pricing power preserved through brand authority — could surprise positively. April 2026 carve-out gives flexibility. Q4 FY26 'sequential gains' allow pricing without volume break. Mgmt sometimes underpromises in reset year. ~27%.

Modelo brand powerCarve-out flexibilityUnderpromise tendency

sonnetRun 1

25%

Beating high end of guide base rate ~15-25%. STZ has Modelo brand strength which could enable surprise. ~25%.

Beat-high-end baseModelo strength

sonnetRun 2

27%

Reset year underpromise tendency + Modelo pricing power could outperform conservative guide. ~27%.

Underpromise tendencyModelo pricing

sonnetRun 3

22%

Pacifico mix dilution + macro consumer caution argue against above-2%. Mgmt LOW-end signal explicit. ~22%.

Pacifico dilutionLOW-end signal

haikuRun 1

24%

Above 2% requires beating high end of guide. Modelo pricing power as upside. ~24%.

Beat high end

haikuRun 2

25%

Modelo + carve-out + reset year underpromise tendency support modest upside probability. ~25%.

Modelo + carve-out

haikuRun 3

23%

Pacifico mix + constrained pricing environment limit probability. ~23%.

Pacifico + macro

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Constellation Brands reports FY 2027 (fiscal year ending approximately February 28, 2027) beer segment full-year price realization (price-mix contribution to net sales growth) above 2.0%, as disclosed in the Q4 FY27 earnings release, FY27 10-K, or investor materials. Resolves NO if 2.0% or below. Comparable price-mix or pricing-realization metric used in FY26 disclosures.

Resolution Source

Constellation Brands Q4 FY27 earnings release / FY27 10-K

Source Trigger

FY27 beer pricing realization — pricing >2% = pricing power intact; <1% = constrained

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONMEDIUM

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