Will Constellation Brands report positive beer depletion growth for Q1 FY27 (March-May 2026)?

Q4 FY26 sequential gains + 'March is off to a solid start' + easy comp from FY26 -2.1% baseline. But Q1 covers March-May; April could revert. Coin-flip with mild positive lean given easy comp and management directional anchor. ~52%.

Q4 FY26 inflection genuine but one quarter; Hispanic immigration pressure persistent through political cycle; FY27 guide is -2% to +1% suggesting management itself sees coin-flip outcome. Tariff de-escalation is supportive but not directly volume-positive. ~48%.

Easy comp + Pacifico continuing broadening + Q4 momentum + tariff de-escalation creates mild constructive case. Net sales guide includes pricing 1-2% so depletions only need to be -1% to +0% for net sales to land in-range. Positive depletions slightly more likely than not. ~55%.

Genuine coin-flip — Q4 inflection vs. structural-deceleration thesis equally plausible. Management 'solid start' commentary slight positive lean offset by FY26 depletions -2.1% trend. ~50%.

Easy comp matters: FY26 Q1 was already weak. Even modest stabilization produces positive YoY. Q4 sequential improvement + 'March solid start' + tariff de-escalation. ~53%.

FY27 guide -2% to +1% net sales; pricing at 1-2% means depletions guide implicitly -3% to 0%. Management itself signals depletions probably negative for FY27. Q1 specifically is somewhat better given easy comp + March commentary, but not enough to push above 50%. ~46%.

Coin-flip: Q4 inflection + March commentary vs. FY26 trend + structural concerns. ~50%.

Easy YoY comp + March solid start commentary mild positive lean. ~52%.

FY27 guidance signals continued pressure. Q1 modestly easier comp but core trend still challenging. ~49%.