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Will Walmart's share of Symbotic's revenue fall below 80% in FY2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Walmart concentration at 84.6% is declining ~2pp/year. Crossing below 80% would represent the first meaningful diversification milestone and begin to de-escalate the FRAGILE revenue durability assessment. Missing this threshold would confirm that the GreenBox/SoftBank JV and Fox Robotics diversification efforts are not yet moving the needle.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.2 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.25 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.22 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.18 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.2 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.15 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.15 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.18 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.12 based on analysis facts.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Walmart represents less than 80% of SYM's total revenue for FY2026. Resolves NO if Walmart is 80% or more.
Resolution Source
SYM FY2026 10-K customer concentration disclosure
Source Trigger
Walmart = 84.6% of FY2025 revenue. 3-year trend: 88.4% to 86.9% to 84.6%. Declining ~2pp/year.
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