Will a QB-Collahuasi JV agreement with Glencore be announced by end of 2026?

Q1 2026 did not produce a JV announcement. CEO language ('nothing concrete to announce at this point') is consistent with ongoing negotiations but no near-term breakthrough signal. The deal requires Glencore cooperation which cannot be forced. Resolution date Jan 31, 2027 means we have Q2, Q3, Q4 2026 earnings calls remaining. Each quarter of non-announcement slightly increases but does not materially change the final probability. Maintain around 0.15-0.20 range. Q1 language is marginally warmer than prior ('progressing' with scoping studies, permitting strategies, stakeholder engagements) — slight upgrade from 0.15 to 0.18.

No change from prior. A JV with Glencore on QB-Collahuasi is the single most speculative element of the Anglo merger thesis. Glencore owns 44% of Collahuasi and has no obligation to cooperate. Even if Anglo-Teck closes mid-2026, the JV negotiation typically follows rather than precedes deal close — the combined entity would negotiate from its position. By end of 2026, Anglo-Teck may just be operationally integrated, not negotiating JVs with third parties. 0.15 remains appropriate.

Slightly more optimistic. If Anglo-Teck close happens mid-to-late 2026, the combined entity may pursue JV immediately for optics and credibility (external advisers validated $1.4B adjacency EBITDA — shareholders will want visible progress). Glencore has commercial incentives: Collahuasi needs a permit extension, processing through QB could unlock value for all parties. The base rate for strategic JVs once motivated parties are aligned is not trivial. But the specific end-of-2026 deadline is tight. Upgrading to 0.20 from 0.15.

No update in Q1 2026 that materially changes the probability. CEO's 'nothing concrete to announce' is the same framing as Q3 2025. Glencore has no reason to agree to a JV that gives them less than 50% economic share in their own asset's highest-value use case. JV negotiations of this size take 12-24 months when all parties are motivated. End-2026 deadline remains aggressive.

CEO language in Q1 2026 adds detail: scoping studies, permitting strategies, stakeholder engagements — this is progress through pre-JV due diligence. But progress through due diligence does not imply JV announcement. Nine months remain to Jan 31, 2027. Slight upgrade from 0.15 to 0.18.

Resolution date Jan 31, 2027 specifies 'announced by end of 2026' — effectively 8 months. With Anglo-Teck merger still 3-9 months from close (12-18 months from Sept 2025), the JV negotiation typically occurs after the merger is complete, not before. Pre-merger JV negotiations would require TECK and Anglo to coordinate with Glencore — three-party negotiation is harder. Downgrade to 0.12.

No announcement. CEO 'nothing concrete.' Glencore holds the cards. Timeline tight. Maintain 0.15.

Slight warmth in CEO Q1 language — scoping, permitting, stakeholder engagements. But not concrete. Slight upgrade to 0.18.

End of 2026 is close. Anglo-Teck close likely in second half 2026. JV negotiation typically post-close. Probability low.