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TEMActive
Will Tempus migrate majority (>50%) of xT CDx volume to FDA-approved version by Q4 2026?
Resolves March 15, 2027(230d)
IG: 0.70
Current Prediction
65%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement78%
Predictions6 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026
Prediction Distribution
0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
Range: 60% – 70%Aggregate: 65%
Individual Predictions(6 runs)
opusRun 1
70%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
opusRun 2
62%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
opusRun 3
68%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
sonnetRun 1
60%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
sonnetRun 2
65%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
sonnetRun 3
67%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Tempus reports or discloses that >50% of xT CDx oncology volume is running on the FDA-approved (IVD/ADLT) version by Q4 2026 earnings or in any 2026 SEC filing. Resolves NO if the disclosed percentage remains at 50% or below.
Resolution Source
Tempus AI earnings call, investor presentation, or SEC filing
Source Trigger
xT CDx FDA volume migration percentage
regulatory-readerREGULATORY_EXPOSUREHIGH
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