Will the International Seabed Authority adopt a formal Mining Code by year-end 2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
The ISA Mining Code adoption would establish the international regulatory framework for deep-sea mining. If adopted before NOAA permits, it could either validate TMC's approach (if permissive) or complicate the US regulatory strategy (if restrictive). The Regulatory Reader identified this as a key swing factor.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.15 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.2 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.12 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.1 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.15 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.1 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.1 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.12 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.08 based on analysis facts.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if the ISA formally adopts a Mining Code (exploitation regulations) by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if regulations remain in draft or negotiation.
Resolution Source
ISA official publications, United Nations press releases
Source Trigger
ISA Mining Code adoption could validate or complicate TMC's US regulatory strategy.
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