Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive
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TMC Forecast Markets
TMC the metals company Inc.
7
Active Markets
23%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will NOAA initiate a formal Environmental Impact Statement for TMC's DSHMRA permit application by year-end 2026?
25%
Likely No
95% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will TMC maintain a cash position above $100 million at year-end 2026?
55%
Likely Yes
96% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will the SOAC warrants (expiring September 2026, $11.50 strike) be exercised by a material number of holders?
12%
Likely No
97% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will the International Seabed Authority adopt a formal Mining Code by year-end 2026?
12%
Likely No
97% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will a Chinese contractor complete a polymetallic nodule collection test of 1,000+ tons by year-end 2026?
10%
Likely No
97% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will TMC's stock-based compensation expense fall below $25 million for FY2026?
25%
Likely No
95% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will an environmental organization file a NEPA-related lawsuit challenging TMC's deep-sea mining permits by year-end 2026?
22%
Likely No
96% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Jan 31, 2027
Will the International Seabed Authority adopt a formal Mining Code by year-end 2026?Prediction: 12%
Jan 31, 2027
Will a Chinese contractor complete a polymetallic nodule collection test of 1,000+ tons by year-end 2026?Prediction: 10%
Mar 31, 2027
Will TMC's stock-based compensation expense fall below $25 million for FY2026?Prediction: 25%