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Will the SOAC warrants (expiring September 2026, $11.50 strike) be exercised by a material number of holders?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
SOAC warrants expire September 2026 with an $11.50 strike. If the share price is below $11.50, warrants expire worthless and TMC loses its largest potential non-dilutive cash inflow. If exercised, the cash injection extends runway significantly. This is a binary event with clear cash flow implications.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.15 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.18 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.12 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.1 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.15 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.1 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.12 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.1 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.08 based on analysis facts.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if more than 25% of outstanding SOAC warrants are exercised before expiration. Resolves NO if fewer than 25% are exercised or they expire worthless.
Resolution Source
TMC 10-Q or 8-K disclosing warrant exercise activity
Source Trigger
SOAC warrant expiration September 2026. If price below $11.50, TMC loses largest potential cash inflow.
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