Will TMC's stock-based compensation expense fall below $25 million for FY2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
The Fugazi Filter flagged a $35M SBC surge as QUESTIONABLE for a pre-revenue company. If FY2026 SBC drops below $25M, it signals management is responding to governance concerns. If it stays elevated or increases, the disconnect between zero revenue and aggressive compensation widens.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.3 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.35 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.28 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.25 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.3 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.22 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.25 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.22 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.2 based on analysis facts.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if TMC reports FY2026 total stock-based compensation expense below $25 million. Resolves NO if $25 million or above.
Resolution Source
TMC FY2026 10-K, notes to financial statements
Source Trigger
$35M SBC surge flagged by Fugazi Filter as QUESTIONABLE for pre-revenue company.
Full multi-lens equity analysis