Will any TTD director or officer make an open-market stock purchase by Q3 2026?

The insider buying question tests whether any director or officer is willing to put personal capital at risk at ~$30. The absence of buying during a 72% decline is itself informative — Falberg sold everything, Green's activity is RSU-driven, and no other insider has stepped up. The ongoing litigation and potential SEC scrutiny create extended blackout periods that physically prevent many insiders from buying. Even if an insider wanted to buy, legal constraints may prevent it for much of the March-September window.

There's a scenario where a new executive — the COO (Kundra) or CRO (Mortensen) — makes a symbolic purchase to signal confidence. New executives joining during a crisis sometimes buy stock as a visible commitment. The retention grants at ~$30 give them strong upside participation, but a supplemental open-market purchase would send a stronger signal. However, new executives are also most constrained by blackout periods during their onboarding quarter. Probability is low but non-zero.

The broader insider behavior pattern — Falberg's complete exit, Green's retention-only activity, no other open-market purchases — suggests insiders collectively do not see compelling value at current prices. This is a strong negative information signal. For an insider to break this pattern and make an open-market purchase would require either genuine conviction that the crisis is passing or a strategic decision to send a confidence signal. Neither seems likely in the 6-month window given the ongoing uncertainty about the audit's impact.

Insiders at companies in crisis almost never buy stock. The base rate is extremely low. Insiders have information advantages and their continued selling/non-buying is a strong signal that they see ongoing risk. TTD's insiders who have the most information about the audit situation are the least likely to buy. The legal compliance department will discourage discretionary trading during active litigation.

The question excludes RSU vestings, option exercises, and 10b5-1 plans — only open-market purchases count. This is a high bar. TTD insiders receive substantial equity compensation through grants, so they have no financial need to buy additional shares. The 167,197 RSU grants given in March 2026 already provide upside exposure. Why would an insider spend personal cash when they're receiving millions in equity grants? Probability is low unless the purchase is purely a confidence-signaling gesture.

Consider the precedent: during TTD's stock decline from $130+ to $30, no insider bought. Not at $100, not at $70, not at $50, not at $30. This sustained non-buying across a wide price range suggests either: (1) insiders see fundamental risk that justifies the decline, (2) legal constraints prevent buying, or (3) both. For a buy to happen in the next 6 months, something fundamental would need to change — like a positive audit resolution or a client re-commitment.

No insider bought during the entire 72% decline. Base rate for insider buying during crises is very low. Active litigation limits trading windows. Very unlikely.

Massive equity grants already give insiders exposure. Open-market purchase adds personal risk with no additional upside beyond what grants provide. Only a symbolic gesture for investor relations purposes would motivate it.

Falberg sold everything at $30. Green's only activity is RSU-driven. No other insider has shown conviction. The pattern is clear and unlikely to break within 6 months absent a major positive development.