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Will TTMI's Aerospace & Defense book-to-bill ratio remain above 1.0 through H2 2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)
IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

62%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement96%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

A&D book-to-bill hit 1.46 in Q4 FY2025 (exceptionally strong). Sustained above 1.0 through H2 2026 confirms the defense backlog thesis and multi-year revenue visibility. Dropping below 1.0 would signal defense demand normalization and weaken the DEFENSIBLE competitive position assessment.

REVENUE_DURABILITYCOMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 58%72%Aggregate: 62%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
68%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.68 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 2 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 3 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1
opusRun 2
72%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.72 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 2 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 3 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1
opusRun 3
65%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.65 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 2 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 3 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1
sonnetRun 1
62%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.62 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 2 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 3 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1
sonnetRun 2
65%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.65 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 2 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 3 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1
sonnetRun 3
60%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.6 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 2 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 3 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1
haikuRun 1
60%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.6 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 2 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 3 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1
haikuRun 2
62%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.62 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 2 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 3 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1
haikuRun 3
58%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.58 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 2 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1Key factor 3 for ttmi-h2-2026-ad-book-to-bill-above-1

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if TTMI's A&D segment book-to-bill ratio remains at or above 1.0 for both Q3 and Q4 FY2026. Resolves NO if either quarter drops below 1.0.

Resolution Source

TTMI quarterly earnings releases with segment data

Source Trigger

A&D book-to-bill at 1.46 in Q4 (exceptionally strong). Sustained >1.0 confirms defense thesis.

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH
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