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Will TTMI report measurable yield improvement at the Penang facility in Q1 2026 results?

Resolves May 15, 2026(36d)
IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

68%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement96%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Penang facility yields are currently a 180bps margin headwind with a target to halve by year-end 2026. Q1 data showing improvement validates operational execution. No improvement would signal the facility ramp is harder than expected, weighing on margins and execution credibility.

CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 62%75%Aggregate: 68%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
72%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.72 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 2 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 3 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvement
opusRun 2
75%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.75 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 2 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 3 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvement
opusRun 3
68%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.68 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 2 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 3 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvement
sonnetRun 1
68%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.68 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 2 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 3 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvement
sonnetRun 2
70%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.7 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 2 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 3 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvement
sonnetRun 3
65%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.65 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 2 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 3 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvement
haikuRun 1
65%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.65 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 2 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 3 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvement
haikuRun 2
68%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.68 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 2 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 3 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvement
haikuRun 3
62%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.62 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 2 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvementKey factor 3 for ttmi-q1-2026-penang-yield-improvement

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if TTMI management discloses measurable yield improvement at Penang in Q1 2026 earnings call or filing (quantitative or qualitative). Resolves NO if no improvement is cited or the headwind is described as unchanged.

Resolution Source

TTMI Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript or 10-Q

Source Trigger

Penang yields currently 180bps margin headwind. Target to halve by year-end 2026.

stress-scannerCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTMEDIUM
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