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UALResolved

Will United Airlines achieve Q1 2026 adjusted EPS at or above $1.00 (low end of guidance)?

Resolves April 30, 2026

IG: 0.85

ResolvedEarly Resolution

Outcome: YES

Source: United Airlines Q1 2026 8-K (filed 2026-04-21, ex-99.1): Adjusted diluted EPS of $1.19 (+31% YoY) within initial $1.00-$1.50 guidance range. GAAP diluted EPS $2.14 (+85% YoY). Pre-tax margin 6.0% (+2.3 pts YoY) despite $340M fuel cost increase.

Resolved: April 21, 2026

Prediction Score

Initial Prediction

0.032

Brier Score

Final Prediction

0.032

Brier Score

No updates (single prediction batch)

Lessons Learned

Premium-revenue insulation thesis validated through first elevated-fuel quarter. Revenue +10.6%, pre-tax margin expanded 2.3 pts despite unhedged fuel stepping up 9.9% YoY. Baseline model calibration (0.82 aggregate) was directionally correct — premium + loyalty durability absorbed Q1 fuel pressure as the thesis predicted. Brier score (1-0.82)^2 = 0.0324 reflects well-calibrated ensemble.

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if United Airlines' Q1 2026 adjusted EPS equals or exceeds $1.00. Resolves NO if below $1.00.

Resolution Source

United Airlines Q1 2026 earnings release (expected April 2026)

Source Trigger

Q1 2026 EPS guidance of $1.00-$1.50 — first quarter under elevated fuel costs

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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