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UAL Forecast Markets
United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
5
Active Markets
2
Resolved
54%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will United Airlines achieve FY2026 adjusted EPS at or above $12.00?
9%
Likely No
68%9%after Q1 2026 earnings — MATERIAL classification. FY2026 adjusted EPS guide cut from $12-$14 to $7-$11 (midpoint -33%). Top of new guide ($11) is below the market threshold ($12). Requires management to beat top of guide by ~10%+ to resolve YES.
96% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.00
Will average Gulf Coast jet fuel exceed $3.00/gallon for H1 2026?
71%
Likely Yes
45%71%after Q1 2026 earnings — UAL confirmed Q1 all-in fuel $2.78/gal and disclosed Q2 2026 assumption of $4.30/gal. Implied Q2 Gulf Coast spot ~$3.90-$4.10 would pull H1 average above $3.00 threshold absent rapid reversal.
94% agreement
Jul 15, 2026
IG: 0.00
Will United Airlines achieve investment-grade rating by year-end 2026?
47%
Likely No
42%47%after Q1 2026 earnings — net leverage hit 2.0x 9 months early + $2B unsecured debt raise (first since 2019). Bond market treating UAL as near-IG. Offset by FY2026 EPS guide cut creating through-cycle uncertainty for agencies.
93% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.00
Will credit card rate cap legislation be signed into law by year-end 2026?
9%
Likely No
10%9%after Q1 2026 refresh — no material change. Rate-cap legislation not mentioned in Q1 materials.
98% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.00
Will United Airlines achieve net leverage below 2.0x by year-end 2026?
78%
Likely Yes
62%78%after Q1 2026 earnings — net leverage hit 2.0x at end of Q1, achieving year-end target 9 months early. $3.1B debt paid down. $2B unsecured raise (first since 2019). $17.2B liquidity. Buybacks paused.
95% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.00
Will United Airlines achieve Q1 2026 adjusted EPS at or above $1.00?
82%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.032Apr 21, 2026
IG: 0.00
Will United report positive main cabin RASM growth in H1 2026?
80%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.040Apr 29, 2026
IG: 0.00
Resolution Timeline
Apr 30, 2026RESOLVED
Will United Airlines achieve Q1 2026 adjusted EPS at or above $1.00? YESBrier: 0.03
Jan 15, 2027
Will credit card rate cap legislation be signed into law by year-end 2026?Prediction: 9%