Will credit card rate cap legislation (10% or lower) be signed into law by December 31, 2026?

No material change since baseline. Q1 materials do not mention rate-cap legislation. 8-month window remaining. Base rate for major credit card rate-cap legislation passing within such a window, against substantial banking industry opposition, is low. Maintain near baseline, modest reduction to 0.08 reflecting elapsed time without observable legislative progress.

Low-probability static event. Legislative calendar in 2026 includes limited windows for major financial regulation. Rate cap would be a major fight the banking lobby opposes strongly. Historical base rate for similar legislation passing in an 8-month window: well below 10%. Maintain at 0.09.

Probability essentially unchanged from baseline. UAL's Q1 co-brand strength and card enhancements suggest the company is not internally pricing in material near-term regulatory disruption. Probability remains single-digit.

No change from baseline. 10% rate cap legislation facing substantial industry opposition; no major procedural steps observable. Maintain ~0.09.

Baseline 0.10 holds. Static low-probability event. No new information suggests upward or downward revision.

Elapsed time without legislative progress slightly reduces remaining probability from baseline. Each month without progress narrows the window. Probability ~0.08.

Low-probability event, no material change since baseline. Maintain ~0.09.

No news, no procedural progress. Maintain near baseline. ~0.09.

Time decay on legislative probability. Maintain single-digit. ~0.08.