UAMYActive

Will Perpetua Resources begin Stibnite Gold Project construction before July 2027?

Resolves July 1, 2027(471d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

58%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement65%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Perpetua Resources beginning Stibnite construction signals the moat erosion timeline. If construction starts before mid-2027, UAMY's window of exclusivity narrows. Delay extends the competitive advantage period.

COMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 55% – 62%Aggregate: 58%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

58%

2027-2028 timeline stated. Government support. Idaho permitting challenges.

Stated timelineGovernment supportIdaho challenges

opusRun 2

55%

Mining construction frequently delays. 16-month window. Possible but uncertain.

Delays common16-month windowUncertain

opusRun 3

60%

Expedited permitting. Years of progress. DPA potential.

Expedited permittingYears of progressDPA potential

sonnetRun 1

55%

Environmental opposition history. 2026 permits needed.

OppositionPermits neededSlips common

sonnetRun 2

62%

Government urgency. Advanced permitting. Lower bar (start not complete).

Government urgencyAdvancedLower bar

sonnetRun 3

58%

Construction start is lower bar. Momentum. Idaho risk.

Lower barMomentumIdaho risk

haikuRun 1

55%

Plausible with government support. Delays common.

PlausibleSupportDelays

haikuRun 2

60%

Expedited permitting. Lower bar. Lean YES.

ExpeditedLower barLean YES

haikuRun 3

58%

Moderate probability. Government support but permitting uncertainty.

ModerateSupportUncertainty

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Perpetua Resources announces commencement of Stibnite Gold Project construction (defined as mobilization of major construction equipment or pouring of first concrete for processing facility) before July 1, 2027. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolution Source

Perpetua Resources press releases, SEC filings, or project status updates

Source Trigger

Perpetua Resources receives final construction permit for Stibnite

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONHIGH

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