Will cumulative tariff pass-through to US retail consumers exceed 15% of total tariff costs by September 30, 2026?
Why This Question Matters
Four of six lenses independently converge on tariff pass-through as the dominant near-term variable. Only 6% passed through after 12 months with buffers depleting. Exceeding 15% would validate asymmetric exposure thesis (TJX benefits, KSS near-existential) and increase CYCLICAL_CONTRACTION regime shift probability from 15-25%.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if publicly available data — including BLS CPI component reports for apparel, home furnishings, and general merchandise, combined with major retailer earnings disclosures and Federal Reserve Beige Book reports through Q3 2026 — indicate that cumulative consumer-facing price increases attributable to tariff costs have exceeded 15% of total estimated tariff burden on US retail imports. Resolves NO if pass-through remains at or below 15% as measured by the same sources, or if Section 122 tariffs are fully repealed before July 2026 (rendering the question moot, resolves NO).
Resolution Source
BLS CPI detailed reports, Federal Reserve Beige Book, WMT/COST/TGT/TJX quarterly earnings transcripts and press releases
Source Trigger
Section 122 tariff expiration without replacement (~July 24, 2026) — only 6% of tariff costs passed through after 12 months, buffers depleting, pass-through acceleration expected Q2-Q3 2026
Full multi-lens equity analysis